Editorial 1 : India’s demographic journey of hits and misses
Context
As we observe World Population Day on July 11, there is much to look at in India’s demographic journey over the decades. It was in 1989 that the United Nations established the day after Dr. K.C. Zachariah, a renowned demographer, had proposed the concept of a ‘World Population Day’.
The status
- The world population had touched five billion in 1987 and challenges such as poverty, health and gender inequality were plaguing the world, developing countries in particular.
- The decades of the 1960s and 1970s were scary as the global population was growing at a yearly rate of 2%.
- For India, there was a prediction of doom. This meant that widespread poverty, hunger and deaths were soon to follow in the next decades.
- However, despite the predictions, the next decades told a different story altogether.
- Global fertility rates declined rapidly. Due to improvements in living conditions and medical infrastructure, life expectancy increased.
- In India too, fertility rates began to fall since the 1970s and at present is below the replacement level.
- India’s progress in many health parameters has been outstanding. There have been significant reductions in maternal and child mortality.
- In 2015, the UN adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which were soon recognised as important metrics in assessing the progress of nations.
- With 2030, the target year, drawing closer, India’s progress in the SDGs should be understood particularly in light of its population dynamics.
India’s population dynamics
- Three components, namely fertility, mortality, and migration, play a pivotal role in shaping India’s demographic landscape.
- India has made significant strides in reducing its fertility.
- According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.
- There has been a significant drop in the mortality rate as well. The average life expectancy of Indians has also increased over time.
- With this, India is experiencing a demographic shift, towards an ageing population.
- According to the 2011 Census, individuals aged 60 years and above constituted 8.6% of the total population. The figure is projected to rise up to 19.5% by 2050.
The changing dynamics
- India’s population dynamics is intertwined with its ‘development’ scenario.
- The reduction in fertility signifies a transition toward smaller family norms.
- This can reduce the proportion of the dependent population and result in a demographic dividend — a period where the working-age population is larger than the dependent population.
- India can harness the potential of its young workforce by creating employment.
- The decline in mortality and increase in life expectancy are reflections of a robust health-care system and increased living standards.
- The issue of population ageing, however, requires a long-term plan — focusing on geriatric care and providing social security benefits.
- Migration and urbanisation are also critical issues. Rapid rural to urban migration is posing a threat to the existing urban infrastructure.
- Women labour force participation, which is straggling, their notable absence from political representation and their unending plight within society are the silent issues which can sabotage India’s path to 2030.
The country’s SDG journey
- ‘Development’ in the simplest way means ensuring the basic requirements of food, shelter and health for all.
- ‘No Poverty, Zero Hunger and Good Health’ are the three most important SDGs which form the core of ‘development’.
- India’s journey from the brink of a demographic disaster to striving towards the 2030 goal of ‘leaving no one behind’ has seen a couple of hits and misses.
- India made great leaps towards the goal of eradicating poverty. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% to 10% between 1990 and 2019.
- The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) that came into effect in 2006 played a critical role in addressing rural poverty.
- The Janani Suraksha Yojana of 2005 — it provides cash benefits to pregnant women — not only accentuated institutional deliveries but also saved poor families from hefty health expenditures.
- With the Green Revolution, India became self-sufficient in crop production and averted a catastrophe.
- The proportion of the population suffering from hunger reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021.
- However, India’s nutrition picture is not completely rosy. India contributes a third of the global burden of malnutrition.
- Though the Indian government launched the Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for. Holistic Nourishment (POSHAN) Abhiyaan in 2018, it will still require a miracle to fulfil the target of ‘Zero Hunger’ by 2030.
- Health is one sector in India where progress made has been remarkable. All the critical mortality indicators have seen steady declines.
- The Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
- Although India is still not near reaching the targets, it seems to be on the right track. These achievements show that there has been a significant improvement in the quality and coverage of health care.
Suggestions
- Despite these achievements, India’s road towards 2030 is not easy. According to Oxfam, the top 10% of India’s population holds 77% of the national wealth.
- If the fruits of development are not equitably distributed and if development does not percolate to the poorest of the poor and the wealth scenario remains so skewed as it is now, ‘sustainable development’ can never be achieved in its truest sense.
- Absolute growth in GDP numbers has limited importance for a country where the top 1% holds 40% of the total wealth. Hunger and nutrition is another sector in crisis. In the Global Hunger Index (2023),
- India’s rank was 111 out of 125 countries. In terms of nutrition, stunting, wasting and underweight among children below five years and anaemia among women pose serious challenges.
Conclusion
India’s epidemiological trajectory shows that the country has a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCD). This is a serious challenge for India which also combats the early onset of NCDs and the rising health needs of the elderly.
Editorial 2 : Locked in conflict
Context
Governors and CMs must step back from a political confrontation.
The issue
- In calling for a report from the State government on the action taken against two police officers, West Bengal Governor C.V. Ananda Bose has escalated the conflict between Raj Bhavan and the State government.
- He has written to the Union government and to the Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, about what he perceives as impropriety by Vineet Goyal, Kolkata City Police Commissioner, and Indira Mukherjee, a Deputy Commissioner of Police.
- The Governor is aggrieved that they made remarks pertaining to an investigation into a complaint of alleged sexual harassment that a Raj Bhavan employee had made against him.
- While the complaint has not been acted upon — as Mr. Bose enjoys immunity from proceedings under Article 361 of the Constitution — it has become a thorny issue, with the Governor believing that the police officers had flouted the rules of conduct in speaking about an investigation that cannot be instituted or continued.
- His consternation is also because he believes the Commissioner had stopped a group of people with grievances about post-election violence from meeting him, even though he had agreed to meet them.
- The Governor has also demanded a report on the action taken with regard to a woman being disrobed in public, a couple being flogged and other incidents of mob violence, undoubtedly a legitimate request.
Governor
- The Governor is indeed authorised to seek information from the State government under Article 167.
- Whether disciplinary action involving central service officers, normally within the domain of the State governments when they are serving the State, can be initiated at the instance of the Governor or the Union government is a separate question altogether.
- Mr. Bose has cited circumstances surrounding the harassment complaint against him to argue that it is a “concocted allegation”, “induced and facilitated” by the police.
- However, it may not be in anyone’s interest to escalate such issues by asking for punitive action against officers.
- At a time when personal squabbles and institutional conflicts between Governors and Chief Ministers are on the rise, the development is likely to be seen as one more stand-off involving the politicisation of Raj Bhavan by incumbents seeking to undermine elected regimes.
- The two sides appear locked in perennial conflict, mirroring the antagonism between the Centre and the State.
- There is the usual one over grant of assent to Bills, and a recent one involves the question who should administer the oath of office to newly elected legislators.
- And there is a defamation suit the Governor has filed against the Chief Minister.
Conclusion
In conclusion, it is imperative for constitutional functionaries to exercise caution and withdraw from the brink before being engulfed in a political rabbit hole. Safeguarding their impartiality and upholding constitutional principles are crucial to preserving the integrity of their offices and the institutions they serve.
