Editorial 1 : India’s neighbourhood watch, past and present

Context

Turbulence in India’s neighbourhood and its implications on India over the years till present.
 

Introduction

Even though India’s neighbourhood appears to be in turmoil, the country occasionally engages in unnecessary self-criticism when things go awry, largely because it tends to overestimate its influence on the outcomes of regional events.
 

Change occurring in India’s neighbourhood within a short span (2008-10)

Between 2008 and 2010, a mere three-year period, significant events unfolded in India’s neighbourhood, ushering in democracy and promising much.
 

Bangladesh

• Military rule in Bangladesh (December 2008): Post military rule under General Moeen U. Ahmed, Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister (2009) riding on the strength of a massive mandate, especially from women and youth.
• India’s Role in Bangladesh Elections of 2008: External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee subtly catalysed free elections in Bangladesh. Over 15 years, India and Bangladesh developed a mutually beneficial partnership, with Ms. Hasina’s government respecting India’s core interests.
   

Sri-Lanka

• India’s role in defeat of LTTE (May 2009): Due to India’s sustained engagement with Sri Lanka, the group- The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was finally defeated.
• This paved way for India to look forward to closer relations with a united Sri Lanka.
   

Maldives

• Democratic elections in Maldives (October 2008): After 30 years of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s autocratic reign, the first multi-party democratic elections were held where Mohamed Nasheed took over as President.
• Indian efforts to stabilise Maldives new democracy: Despite ups and downs, India’s assistance to the Maldives has resulted in three different Presidents over the last three consecutive elections, demonstrating the country’s democratic maturity over nearly 16 year.
   

Myanmar

• Myanmar elections (2010):  Were held after 20 years of military rule.

• Elections were held in which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) came to power.
• Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was freed after phases of imprisonment.
• Suu Kyi’s party – National League for Democracy (NLD) had landslide wins in 2015 and 2020, indicating a strengthening of democratic roots.
   

Pakistan

• Democratic step: Pakistan elected a civilian government in 2008, sending President Pervez Musharraf into exile.
   

India’s role in ushering of democracy in neighbourhood (2008-10)

• The developments gave hope that democracy, with all its imperfections, was taking root in India’s neighbourhood.
• The years 2008-10 also witnessed an exponential increase in India’s development assistance to its neighbours like:

• The rebuilding of northern Sri Lanka
• Extending the biggest ever line of credit to Bangladesh, of $1 billion
• Through connectivity projects in Myanmar
• Budgetary support to stabilise the fledgling democracy in the Maldives

Thus, India could more than match China’s “chequebook diplomacy” in its neighbourhood.
 

The present neighbourhood situation (2021-24)

Bangladesh

• Collapse of democracy in Bangladesh: Ms. Hasina’s government collapsed in August 2024 under the weight of its own democracy deficit, an economic downturn and a violent quashing of student protests that anti-Hasina forces joined in later.
• India’s limited role:  It is difficult to decide how much a leader should be pressured to change course without seeming to interfere in a country’s internal affairs, especially when there is appreciation of each other’s national interests.
• Individual v/s Institutional links: India’s bias toward Ms. Hasina is being scrutinized. While personal relationships are important, India failed to maintain regular engagement with Bangladesh’s Opposition.
   

Sri-Lanka

• Mass Anti-government movement (2022): The President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka, unable to control a series of mass anti-government “Aragalaya” protests led mostly by apolitical irate public and youth.
• Its democracy and the economy took a severe beating, the after-effects of which are still being felt in Sri Lanka.
• India’s role in Sri-Lankan crises: India’s timely and generous bailout package of about $4 billion saved the economy.

• Having established connections across Sri Lanka’s political spectrum, India is well-positioned regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections.
• India has even made peace with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a right-wing party which has usually been anti-India in its stand.

Maldives

• Elections in Maldives (2024): The results of elections in the Maldives caught India on the wrong foot as President Mohamed Muizzu’s huge win where was not favoured as it did not engage with him earlier.
• Indian intervention with Maldives: After Maldives’ first elections when President Nasheed (2008-12) was in trouble without a majority in the Majlis.

• India “counseled” him on the importance of respecting the “coalition mantra”.
• However, he was not persuaded and ended up losing his presidency.
• So much for India turning a blind eye to the “mistakes” of its friends.

Myanmar

• Military regime takeover (February 2021): Despite the 2020 elections having given the NLD a huge mandate. Myanmar military are dealing with the Opposition and ethnic groups gaining ground.
• Impact on India: The conflict is spilling over into India’s north-east.
• India’s dilemma: On whether to stay with the military to protect itself from insurgents using Myanmar soil or to side with the rejuvenated Opposition forces fighting for change, since India cannot afford to lose Myanmar in this balancing act.

Afghanistan

• Entry of Taliban (August 2021): The Taliban forcibly captured power after two decades, turning the clock back in Afghanistan.
• India’s viewpoint on Afghan politics:  Currently, India is fending for itself from the fall-out. Earlier, India had anticipated this and even cautioned the United States, but the U.S. kept its “strategic” partner India out of its engagement with Taliban for fear of offending Pakistan.

Pakistan

• Death of Democracy and Military Rule (2022): And Pakistan saw its civilian government toppled in 2022, widely seen as at the army’s behest as in the past.

Way forward: New Delhi’s response as key factor

Positive developments on India’s efforts include:

• On Sri-Lanka: India has not done too badly considering that it bailed out Sri Lanka financially when Colombo needed India the most.
• On Maldives: India extended friendship and patience with the new Maldivian government to find its feet.
• On Afghanistan: India expressed willingness to do business with Taliban in Afghanistan to protect India’s geopolitical interests.
• On Nepal: India re-extended the hand of friendship to an unstable but democratic Nepal after an attempt to pressure Nepal boomeranged on India.

Conclusion

Challenging neighbourhood developments for India include; on Myanmar – the country is veering toward a possible civil war; and on Bangladesh– the country is struggling to get back on its democratic feet.

In both cases, going along with forces trying to keep democratic space open is India’s best bet.

• In Myanmar, used as India is to an uneasy alliance of the army and NLD, India needs a different approach with ethnic groups getting into this mix.
• In Bangladesh, India needs a new understanding with parties, not all of whom are favourable to India and keep out external anti-India forces waiting to take advantage of the situation.
   

Amid these upheavals, the significance of India’s strong developmental support as a foundation for closer ties with its neighbours is often underestimated. Even the Taliban hesitated to attack Indian projects over the last two decades since it benefited the people. These factors highlight the need for India to maintain more consistent engagement with its neighbours and the region.

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Editorial 2 : Old rivalries

Context

The underlying differences are beginning to hurt Mahayuti.

Introduction

In the ruling coalition in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti, the tensions between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar, are visible to all.

Coalition discords in Maharashtra

• Impact of general elections: The setback the coalition faced in the 2024 general election might have been the immediate trigger for the open display of discord in the alliance.
• Assembly politics: While the Mahayuti is caught in internal strife, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — of the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and the Congress — has managed to put its house in order.
• Disconnect over the flagship scheme: Efforts towards A flagship scheme that the ruling alliance unveiled recently in the hope of recovering some lost political ground is itself cause for strife among partners as each one of them calls it by a different name.
• The political party name gamble: Mr. Shinde uses the full name ‘Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana’, while the BJP calls it the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana’. Ajit Pawar, who introduced the scheme during the Budget session in June, refers to it as the ‘Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana’.
• Governance collapse: The recent incident where a statue of Shivaji Maharaj collapsed in the Rajkot Fort in Sindhudurg district has further embarrassed the coalition, that was unveiled by PM last year.
• Political parties milking the issue of statue collapse: Mr. Modi has apologised to the public for the collapse of the statue but that has not laid the matter to rest. The MVA is determined to milk the issue, and on Sunday, organised a protest.
• Importance of Shivaji Maharaj: A Maratha king, holds immense significance for the Maratha community, to which Ajit Pawar and his uncle and patriarch of the State’s politics, Sharad Pawar, belong.
• Reaction of parties to the statue fiasco: Ajit Pawar was the first to offer an unconditional apology for the statue’s collapse. Both the BJP and the Sena have had a long tussle with the NCP, and Ajit Pawar personally, before becoming political partners.

Conclusion

Many in the BJP blame the Ajit Pawar group for the debacle in the Lok Sabha election. Ajit Pawar also appears unsure of his association with the BJP and the Sena. He surprised his alliance partners by admitting that fielding his wife Sunetra against his cousin Supriya Sule in the general election was a mistake. He also said that he had asked the BJP not to target Sharad Pawar and felt that Mr. Modi’s remark calling Mr. Pawar a ‘Bhatakti Atma’, or an aimless soul, while on the campaign trail in the run-up to the general election did not appeal to the people. Ajit Pawar’s wavering stance and criticism of the BJP’s campaign strategy suggest deepening rifts within the alliance, raising questions about its future cohesion.