1) Hemmed in on all sides
GS2: India & Its Neigbhourhood
Context:
- The author talks about the future of Afghanistan & its Neigbhourhood.
Editorial Insights:
What’s the issue?
- The fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban has raised many concerns.
- Eventually, those concerns are becoming a reality.
- What’s happening in Afghanistan?
- No Stable Leadership,
- Highly confused signals & guidelines,
- Highly decentralized governance in lower levels resulted in each group following its own set of rules.
- Governance is more focused on policing & punishments.
- Evolved protection of human rights is missing.
- At this juncture, Kabul led by the Taliban is under pressure from 4 Directions.
- Pakistan for security & past links,
- China for investment,
- Russia for intelligence,
- West for the ability to conduct finance globally.
Pakistan & its role in Kabul’s Pandora’s Box:
- Though Pakistan has claimed victory in the Kabul negotiations but for Pakistan to physically intervene in a leadership crisis indicates its lack of control over the Doha & Haqqani factions.
- Also, Pakistan still has to persuade the Kabul regime to cater to the Western demands to include ethnic minorities in govt.
- Further, Pakistan has to deal with an enormous refugee crisis.
- Because of the Afghan faltering fiscal situation, it expects key assistance from Pakistan.
- However, Pakistan itself is in dire economic straits due to restrictive IMF conditions & it will be exceedingly difficult to send supplies to Afghan on uncertain terms of payment.
- Additionally, Pak establishment worried about weak Helmandi Pashtun heading clergy would become strong in the govt & will come under the Indian & Western influence.
- Pakistan has to be careful in the Afghan crisis due to the following worries about its future:
- USA’s control of Afghan’s forex & remittances,
- UN & us Treasury possible sanctions,
- Potential CAATSA sanctions for any Russian investment,
- FATF for financial strangulation.
- At this juncture, the strategic-economic alliance that Pakistan established with China to bind India down to hard borders along its entire boundary just have mitigated by the Taliban victory.
- However, India now will use its only leftover option that is encouraging Pashtun separatism within Pakistan.
- Trouble making Haqqanis:
- Pakistan has lost control over the sudden emergence of Anas Haqqani.
- The presence of Pakistani asset, ISI groomed Sirajuddin Haqqani is inconvenient to the US.
- His presence is a danger to the stability of the new Taliban regime.
- Therefore Pakistan is trying hard to bring Haqqanis on board with the Taliban regime even if the move reduces the chance of recognition & survival of the regime.
- Because Pakistan believes that if Haqqanis are left out from the equation, it would lead to destabilizing the nascent regime & will be forced to house a dissenting or warring Haqqani faction within Pakistan.
Concluding Remarks:
- Pakistan’s political obsession to destabilize its neighbours has made its economy fall well behind that of Bangladesh. Pakistan’s victory in Afghanistan might make it a bigger nuisance for India & the region but it is unlikely to reverse the steady relative decline of Pak’s comprehensive national power.
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