A lot is at stake for India-Bangladesh ties
Context:
In August, while addressing devotees gathered to celebrate Janmashtami, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen requested the Indian government to ensure that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stays in power when Bangladesh goes to the polls next year. He claimed that both India and Bangladesh would gain political stability by ensuring this.
These out-of-the-norm comments from the senior cabinet member of Bangladesh shows growing importance of Indo-Bangladesh bilateral ties.
India-Bangladesh relations:
1. Historic relations:
- India was the chief architect of Bangladeshi independence from the oppressive political rule of (west) Pakistan in 1971.
- On 16th December 1971, the chief of the Pakistani forces with 93,000 soldiers had surrendered unconditionally to the allied forces consisting of Indian Army and Mukti Bahini in Dhaka.
- Mukti Bahini refers to the armed organizations that fought against the Pakistan Army during the Bangladesh Liberation War. It was a guerrilla resistance movement.
- India was one of the first countries to recognize Bangladesh and establish diplomatic relations immediately after its independence in December 1971
2. Economic Relations:
- Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh.
- In the FY 2019-20, India’s exports to Bangladesh were $8.2 bn and imports were $1.26 bn.
- Bangladesh has appreciated the Duty-Free and Quota Free access given to Bangladeshi exports to India under South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) since 2011.
3. Connectivity:
- Both countries jointly inaugurated the newly restored railway link between Haldibari (India) and Chilahati (Bangladesh).
- Agreed to an early operationalization of the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative Motor Vehicles Agreement through the expeditious signing of the Enabling MoU
- The second addendum to the Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) was signed recently
- Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala Bus Service also launched in 2015. This reduced the distance between Kolkata and Agartala from 1,650 km to just 500 km.
4. Cooperation over Rivers:
- India and Bangladesh share 54 common rivers.
- A bilateral Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) has been working since June 1972 to maintain liaison between the two countries to maximize benefits from common river systems.
5. Defence Cooperation:
- Border Management: India and Bangladesh share 7 km. of border, which is the longest land boundary that India shares with any of its neighbours.
- The India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) came into force following the exchange of instruments of ratification in June 2015.
- Various Joint exercises of Army (Exercise Sampriti) and Navy (Exercise Milan) take place between the two countries
6. Citizens and tourism
- Bangladesh migrants account for most number of immigrants coming into India.
- Bangladesh also accounts for greatest source of tourists among Indian neighbors.
- Bangladesh accounts for more than 35% of India’s international medical patients.
- Bangladesh alone contributes to more than 50% of India’s revenue from medical tourism
7. Co operation in multilateral platforms
- Members of major regional organisations like South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
- Solidarity at global platforms like UNSC, working together in achieving SDGs
- Cooperation to tackle the challenge of COVID-19 pandemic – participation of Bangladesh in SAARC leaders Video Conference in March 2020 and for creation of the SAARC Emergency Response Fund to counter effects of the global pandemic in the South Asian region.
8. Recent Advancements
- Recently, India and Bangladesh signed seven agreements and also inaugurated three projects to deepen their partnership.
- The use of the Chattogram and Mongla ports in Bangladesh for movement of goods to and from India, particularly from Northeastern India.
- Use of Bangladesh’s Feni River for drinking water supply in Tripura.
Challenges to bilateral relations:
1. The Teesta river water dispute:
The 2011 interim deal aims to share the Teesta river water between India and Bangladesh about 42.5 per cent and 37.5 per cent respectively. But, West Bengal objects to this demand and never signed the deal as it negatively impacts its farmers.
2. Illegal migrants issue:
Bangladesh has already raised concerns over roll out of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam, an exercise carried out to identify genuine Indian citizens living in Assam and weed out illegal Bangladeshis
3. China Factor
Bangladesh is an active partner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that India has not signed up to.
Bangladesh is also a major recipient of Chinese military inventory, including submarines.
4. Other issues
Armed Dacoity in border districts, fake money transfer, cattle smuggling is also a cause of concern for India.
Trafficking of Illegal migrants and involving them in terrorist activities, prostitution in India is also a challenge in India-Bangladesh relations.
Apart from that, Bangladesh is also opposing India’s proposed the Tipaimukh Dam on the Barak River in Manipur and the Interlinking of the rivers project by India.
Focus of the upcoming visit:
1. Trade and connectivity
- Following the conclusion of the seventh round of the India-Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission in June, the two neighbours have expanded their partnership to include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech, cybersecurity, startups, and connectivity.
- Trade will be a focal point during Ms. Hasina’s visit as the two countries gear up to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The two Prime Ministers are also expected to inaugurate a joint venture power plant soon.
- CEPA comes at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose the duty-free and quota-free market-access facility to India after 2026 when it graduates to a developing country.
- Bangladesh is India’s sixth largest trade partner with bilateral trade rising from to $10.8 billion in FY 2021. Bangladesh imports critical industrial raw material from India on which its exports are reliant.
- India and Bangladesh have implemented several projects to boost eastern India-Bangladesh connectivity. India’s connectivity projects with ASEAN and Bangladesh will open up the region to economic growth.
- Bangladesh has expressed its interest in joining the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral highway project.
- India-Bangladesh bilateral waterway trade will get boosted as India can now use the Mongla and Chittagong ports. India is rallying Bangladesh to divert its exports through Indian ports in place of Malaysian or Singaporean ports.
- Enhancing connectivity through India’s Northeast and Bangladesh is important for bilateral cooperation. Currently, three express trains and international bus services operate between Indian and Bangladesh.
2. Teesta river water sharing issue:
- The sharing of the waters of the Teesta has remained a thorny issue between the two countries since 1947. For West Bengal, Teesta is important to sustain its impoverished farming districts.
- For Bangladesh, the Teesta’s flood plains cover about 14% of the total cropped area of the country and provide direct livelihood opportunities to 7% of the population. The countries are expected to sign at least one major river agreement during the upcoming trip.
3. Land border, smuggling and Citizenship:
- In 2015, India and Bangladesh resolved the decades-long border dispute through the Land Swap Agreement (exchange of enclaves).
- Indian Home Minister Amit Shah recently reviewed the security arrangements in the Assam-Meghalaya-Bangladesh tri-junction, which used to a smugglers’ route.
- In 2019, India enacted the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA, 2019), which created an uproar within and beyond the borders. Ms. Hasina termed the move as “unnecessary”. It had ripple effects for Bangladesh.
4. Rohingya issue:
Bangladesh also requires China’s support in resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis. India has refused providing asylum to Rohingyas but is helping Bangladesh settle them in its char islands.
5. Regional geopolitics:
- Chinese inroads into the neighborhood have been a cause of worry for India. China has been actively pursuing bilateral ties with Bangladesh. Bangladesh had successfully approached China for a mega project to enhance Teesta river water flow.
- Bangladesh is the second biggest arms market for China after Pakistan.
- Bangladesh has also been warming up to Pakistan. The two shared frosty ties for decades after Pakistani politicians made unwarranted comments on the International Crimes Tribunal set up by Bangladesh. Although memories of 1971 remain, Bangladesh has expressed its interest in establishing peaceful relations with Pakistan.
- Ms. Hasina has worked on strengthening bilateral ties and has uprooted all anti-India insurgency activities within Bangladesh by leading from the front.
- India-Bangladesh ties witnessed the lowest ebb in 2004 when a 10-truck arms and ammunition haul took place in Chittagong. Investigators believed that the delivery of the smuggled arms was intended for the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), a militant group seeking Assam’s independence from India. These illicit activities created tensions between the countries.
Way forward:
- The early resolution of river water disputes like Teesta is the better way to boost India-Bangladesh relations.
- Involvement of joint forces to reduce border issues such as illegal trading, trafficking, cattle smuggling, etc
- Strengthening of regional groups like SAARC, BIMSTEC etc and focusing on Neighbourhood First policy.
- Good relation between India and Bangladesh is essential for the development of North-east region, exploring the Indo-Pacific region and for greater connectivity to South Asian countries.
Conclusion:
- For India, the challenge is to earn the trust and confidence of Bangladeshis across the spectrum and strata. Ms. Hasina has deepened ties with the Narendra Modi government, but the two have failed to resolve long-standing issues such as Teesta water-sharing and killings at the border.
- The question is, how these factors may affect elections in Bangladesh. For India it will take more than cosy relations with one particular government to have long-term stable relations with its most trusted friend in the neighbourhood.
- Just as Bangladeshis remain grateful to India for the generous support extended by India during the Liberation War of 1971, they are equally sensitive to being treated with respect and fairness, no matter who rules their country.
India and Australia, from divergence to convergence
Context:
The fifth round of the bilateral Track 1.5 dialogue will set the pace for Canberra’s deepening relationship with New Delhi. Canberra’s relationship with New Delhi is among the most important and critical for the future of the Indo-Pacific.
India- Australia Relations:
India-Australia Strategic Relationship:
- With the changing global scenario, Australia has come to look at India as an important partner in promoting regional security and stability. This led to up gradation of bilateral relationship to a ‘Strategic Partnership’, including a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation in 2009.
- Bilateral mechanisms include high level visits, Annual Meetings of Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers’ Framework Dialogue, Joint Trade & Commerce Ministerial Commission, India-Australia ‘2+2’ Foreign Secretaries and Defence Secretaries Dialogue, Defence Policy Talks, Australia-India Education Council, Defence Services Staff Talks, Energy Security Dialogue, JWGs on different issues etc.
- Both the countries have common interests in upholding international law, especially in relation to freedom of navigation and maritime security”.
Political relations:
- Mechanisms like:
- India-Australia ‘2+2’ Foreign Secretaries and Defence Secretaries Dialogue
- India-Australia-Japan Trilateral Dialogue
- Indonesia-Australia-India Trilateral Dialogue
Bilateral Economic and Trade Relationship:
- India Economic Strategy, prepared by an Australian Think Tank in 2018, has become a pathway for Australia to unlock opportunities offered by Indian Economic growth.
- The strategy aims for a clear exposition of the kind of relationship Australia should aspire to have with India out to 2035.
- The Paper identifies ten key sectors (Education as flagship sector; Agribusiness, Resources and Tourism as lead sectors; Energy, Health, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Sports, Science & Innovation as Promising Sectors) and ten states in India (Andhra Pradesh, Delhi NCR, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, UP and West Bengal) where Australia should focus efforts.
- India is the 5th largest trade partner of Australia with trade in goods and services at A$ 29 billion representing 3.6% share of the total Australian trade in 2017-18, with export at A$ 8 billion and import at A$ 21 billion.
- India’s main exports to Australia are Refined Petroleum, medicaments, while our major imports are Coal, copper ores & concentrates, Gold, and education related services.
Civil Nuclear Cooperation:
- A Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement between the two countries was signed in 2014. The Australian Parliament passed the “Civil Nuclear Transfer to India Bill 2016” in 2016 which ensures that Uranium mining companies in Australia may fulfil contracts to supply Australian uranium to India for civil use with confidence that exports would not be hindered by domestic legal action challenging the consistency of the safeguards applied by the IAEA in India and Australia’s international non-proliferation obligations.
- It also ensures that any future bilateral trade in other nuclear-related material or items for civil use will also be protected.
Defence Cooperation:
- The Mutual Logistics Support Agreement has been signed during the summit that should enhance defence cooperation and ease the conduct of large-scale joint military exercises.
- Recently Australia and India conducted AUSINDEX,their largest bilateral naval exercise, and there are further developments on the anvil, including Australia’s permanent inclusion in the Malabar exercise with Japan.
- Both countries also hold joint military exercises regularly like Exercise Pitch Black, AUSTRAHIND (Special Forces of Army Exercise) etc.
- A broader maritime cooperation agreement with a focus on Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is also in the works and Australia has agreed to post a Liaison Officer at the Indian Navy’s Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) at Gurugram.
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) aka Quad:
- The informal strategic Dialogue (QSD) that was initiated by Shinzo Abe in 2007 was largely in response to China’s growing power and influence.
- It has become the lynchpin of security and strategic cooperation among like minded democracies in Indo-pacific region, against Chinese expansionism.
Agriculture, Science and Technology:
- An Australia-India Strategic Research Fund (AISRF), which was established in 2006, supports scientists in India and Australia to collaborate on leading-edge research. AISRF consists of India Australia Biotechnology Fund; India-Australia Science & Technology Fund; Grand Challenge Fund and Fellowship Schemes.
- The Australian side is also cooperation in our Clean Ganga Project as agreed during visit of our PM to Australia in 2014.
- Agreement on Cyber and Cyber-Enabled Critical Technology was signed.
Resource and Energy Cooperation:
- A Joint Working Group on Energy and Minerals was established in 1999 to expand bilateral relationship in the energy and resources sector.
- As energy is one of the central pillars of economic cooperation, both sides agreed to cooperate on transfer of clean coal technology and welcomed Australia’s desire to upgrade the Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad.
Education, Sports & Cultural Ties:
- The Joint Working Group on Education between the two countries has identified several key areas for co-operation, including collaborative research in education policy, student exchange programmes, capacity building in vocational education and distance learning in higher education.
- Under the New Colombo Plan of Australian government, Australian undergraduates have studied and completed internships in India
Indian Diaspora in Australia:
- The Indian community in Australia continues to grow in size and importance, with the population of nearly seven lakhs.
- India is one of the top sources of skilled immigrants to Australia. There is a constant flow of students and tourists from India.
- India is now the third largest source of immigrants to Australia, after UK and New Zealand and the largest source of skilled professionals for Australia.
A gradual change:
- When we started this dialogue we recognised that for most of the 20th century, India and Australia rarely had a meaningful conversation. The long shadow of the Cold War, India’s autarkic economic policies, the White Australia policy, and Canberra’s decision not to transfer uranium to India and other factors had kept the two countries apart for several decades. But that era of mutual distrust is over.
- Today, few countries in the Indo-Pacific region have more in common in both values and interests than India and Australia. Apart from being two English-speaking, multicultural, federal democracies that believe in and respect the rule of law, both have a strategic interest in ensuring a balance in the Indo-Pacific and in ensuring that the region is not dominated by any one hegemonic power.
- In addition, Indians are today the largest source of skilled migrants in Australia and the economic relationship, already robust, could potentially be transformed if the promise of the new Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) is realised.
Setting markers for ties:
- A dialogue is a conversation between equals who have agreed to work as partners. No one just preaches, no one just listens. Thought leaders have come here, some from long distances, to have a robust conversation about our relationship and ways in which we can carry it forward. We are here also to lead and provide markers for the future of the relationship between our two great countries.
- We are living through a period of immense turbulence, disruption and even subversion: the world is more uncertain than it ever was in our lifetimes. Even the Cold War, some may say, had a predictability, icy as it may have been.
The Australia-India Leadership Dialogue:
- It is critical because ideas matter in a relationship as much transactions and negotiations do. Stable, strong and sustainable relationships are built not just on the possibility of immediate gains, but on the promise of the future. In other words, the relationship is far too important to be left to the two governments alone. Governments matter tremendously, but forums such as these can provide the space and the ambience that can infuse new ideas to generate a new energy into the relationship.
- The Leadership Dialogue is also important because ultimately, people and real connections matter. Some of these topics range from cyberthreats and artificial intelligence (AI) governance in a geopolitically turbulent region, to how they will decarbonise their economies and help each other develop trusted supply chains through critical minerals cooperation, to how India’s tech talent can help address Australia’s skills gaps through migration.
- Australia wants to find alternative markets to China and diversify supply chains for its critical minerals. As a country with reserves of about 21 out of the 49 minerals identified in India’s critical minerals strategy, Australia is well placed to serve India’s national interests required for India’s carbon reduction programme.
Conclusion:
- And while this is the first Dialogue since 2019, due to the novel coronavirus pandemic having kept both countries apart, as two nations we have only grown closer together through enhancing our shared framework for regional security, promoting business and commercial opportunities and strengthening our people to people links, bilaterally and multilaterally.
- As India marks 75 years of Independence and surpasses the United Kingdom as the fifth largest global economy, the momentum around this fifth Australia-India Leaderships Dialogue and the bilateral fruit it may bear should not be underestimated.
