DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

Population growth in India is influenced by a variety of determinants, which can be broadly categorized into demographic, social, economic, and political factors. Understanding these determinants is crucial for formulating policies and strategies to manage population growth effectively.

Demographic Determinants

1. Fertility Rate:
   • Birth Rates: The total fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime, is a key determinant. India’s TFR has declined from about 5.9 children per woman in the 1950s to around 2.2 in recent years. However, there are regional variations. For instance, states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still have higher fertility rates compared to states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
2. Mortality Rate:
   • Death Rates: Improvements in healthcare have led to a decline in mortality rates, contributing to population growth. Life expectancy at birth in India has increased from around 41 years in 1960 to about 70 years in 2021. This decline in mortality is due to better medical facilities, immunization programs, and improved living conditions.
3. Infant Mortality Rate:
   • Survival of Infants: A lower infant mortality rate (IMR) contributes to higher population growth. India’s IMR has decreased significantly over the years, from 146 per 1,000 live births in 1950 to around 30 per 1,000 live births in 2020. States like Kerala have particularly low IMR due to better healthcare services.

Social Determinants

1. Marriage Patterns:
   • Age at Marriage: Early marriage tends to result in higher fertility rates, contributing to population growth. In rural areas, the practice of marrying at a younger age is still prevalent, leading to higher fertility. Efforts to increase the legal age of marriage and promote later marriages are ongoing.
2. Education:
   • Educational Attainment: Higher levels of education, especially among women, are associated with lower fertility rates. Educated women are more likely to delay marriage and childbirth and to use family planning methods. For example, Kerala’s high literacy rate correlates with its low fertility rate.
3. Cultural and Religious Beliefs:
   • Family Size Preferences: Cultural and religious norms can influence family size preferences. In some communities, there is a preference for larger families, which contributes to higher fertility rates.

Economic Determinants

1. Income Levels:
   • Economic Development: Higher income levels and economic development are generally associated with lower fertility rates. Wealthier families tend to have fewer children due to the higher costs of raising and educating them. Urban areas, which typically have higher income levels, show lower fertility rates compared to rural areas.
2. Employment Opportunities:
   • Female Employment: Increased employment opportunities for women, especially in urban areas, tend to delay marriage and reduce fertility rates. Women who work are more likely to prioritize their careers and have fewer children.
3. Cost of Living:
   • Urban vs. Rural: The high cost of living in urban areas can discourage large families. Urbanization tends to correlate with lower fertility rates due to the economic pressures of raising children in cities.

Political Determinants

1. Government Policies:
   • Family Planning Programs: Government initiatives like the National Family Welfare Program, which promotes family planning and contraceptive use, have played a significant role in reducing fertility rates. Campaigns such as “Hum Do, Hamare Do” (We Two, Ours Two) encourage smaller family norms.
2. Health Policies:
   • Healthcare Access: Policies aimed at improving healthcare access, particularly maternal and child healthcare, have helped reduce mortality rates and improve overall health outcomes, indirectly influencing population growth.
3. Legal Reforms:
   • Marriage Laws: Legal reforms aimed at increasing the minimum age of marriage and promoting gender equality contribute to delayed marriage and lower fertility rates.

Example: Kerala vs. Bihar

The contrasting demographic profiles of Kerala and Bihar illustrate the impact of these determinants:

• Kerala:
  • Fertility Rate: Kerala has a low TFR of about 1.8, which is below the replacement level.
  • Education: With a literacy rate of 96.2%, Kerala has the highest literacy rate in India, contributing to lower fertility rates.
  • Healthcare: Kerala has an advanced healthcare system, leading to low infant mortality and high life expectancy.
  • Economic Development: Higher income levels and better employment opportunities, particularly for women, contribute to lower fertility rates.
• Bihar:
  • Fertility Rate: Bihar has a high TFR of about 3.2, significantly above the national average.
  • Education: The literacy rate in Bihar is around 70%, which is lower than the national average, contributing to higher fertility rates.
  • Healthcare: Bihar’s healthcare system is less developed, with higher infant mortality rates compared to Kerala.
  • Economic Development: Lower income levels and fewer employment opportunities for women result in higher fertility rates.

Conclusion

Population growth in India is influenced by a multitude of factors, including demographic variables like fertility and mortality rates, social factors like education and cultural norms, economic determinants like income and employment opportunities, and political influences such as government policies and legal reforms. The contrasting examples of Kerala and Bihar highlight how these determinants interplay to shape population growth in different regions. Understanding these factors is essential for devising effective population management strategies and ensuring sustainable development.