Editorial 1: A three-tier war in West Asia with no endgame
Context
This is a conflict loop where no side is deterring its rival. With no way to break out of the loop, Israel chose to climb up the escalation ladder.
Introduction
The Israeli-Palestinian situation is tense, particularly in the West Bank, but in the face of serious frictions, we have de-escalated crises in Gaza.” A few days after the piece was sent to press, on October 7, Hamas launched its deadliest attack in Israel, killing at least 1,200 people and taking some 250 people hostage, triggering the latest spell of war in the Israel-Palestine conflict. A year later, West Asia (or the Middle East, as Mr. Sullivan calls it) is deadlier today than it has been in decades.
What is the American perspective?
- Mr. Sullivan’s October 2023 prognosis was not entirely unfounded if the region is seen from an American perspective.
- The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 by Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, announced a new age of Arab-Israel partnership.
- Normalising ties: Saudi Arabia was in an advanced stage of normalising ties with Israel, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself put it.
- At the G20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023: U.S. President Joe Biden announced an ambitious economic corridor that sought to connect India’s western coast to Europe through the Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Israel.
- The Palestine demands: But what Mr. Sullivan, the Arabs, and the Israelis overlooked was the Palestine question.
Two narratives
- The Israel’s perspective: Israel believed that it had established a new status quo — occupation without consequences.
- The Arabs Perspective: The Arabs believed that the Palestine issue had lost its geopolitical currency and that they could go ahead with formalising their decades-long back-room relationship with Israel.
- The U.S. perspective: wanted to bring the Sunni Arabs and the Israelis, two pillars of its West Asia strategy, closer in its bid to reshape West Asia and isolate Iran. But by carrying out a murderous attack in Israel
- Role of Hamas: not only torpedoed this status quo, but also triggered a chain of events that led to a wider regional conflict, reinforcing the old argument that there will not be peace and stability in West Asia unless the Palestine question is addressed.
The Israel’s shift in narrative
- Delinking Palestine militarism: But Israel has a different narrative. It has always sought to delink Palestinian militarism from its occupation of the Palestinian territories.
- Security concern: Before October 7, Israel had been treating Palestinian violence as a security nuisance. But after the Hamas attack, the first large-scale one in Israel proper since 1948, the narrative shifted.
- Israel’s fight for existence: Now, Israel is fighting an “existential war” against terror. Israel marched to Gaza with fire and fury.
- Displacement of Gazans: Over the past 12 months, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have killed more than 41,000 Palestinians (more than 110 every day) and injured nearly 1,00,000 Palestinians. Nearly the whole population of Gaza (2.3 million) has been displaced.
Octopus doctrine
- Hezbollah opens front in Israel’s north: Israel expanded the war,
- defying pressure from the U.S.,
- by doubling down on its assault on Hezbollah and
- taking the war to Iran by attacking its embassy complex in Damascus.
- In retaliation, Iran launched direct attacks against Israel. Now, Israel is fighting a three-tier regional war in West Asia.
- Three-tier objectives: Israel has different objectives at each tier, which collectively make for its strategy to alter the balance of power in West Asia to further its advantage.
- At the bottom tier, Israel went to Gaza with two declared objectives — to destroy Hamas and secure the release of hostages.
- In the middle, it wants to push Hezbollah from the border region of Lebanon and stop the Shia militia from launching rockets into Israel so that the displaced residents of the Upper Galilee region can return to their homes.
- At the top, it wants to weaken Iran, its main regional rival. Israel sees the conflict, as the former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett put it, as a war against a rival octopus. Iran is the head of the octopus and the militias (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hashad al-Shabi, etc.) are the tentacles.
- In the three-tier war, Israel wants to destroy or degrade the tentacles and weaken the octopus and thereby reshape West Asia. Is this an achievable goal?
Challenges in achieving objective
- Gaza War: After 12 months of fighting in Gaza, which has been under an Israeli blockade since 2007 and has been besieged by Israel since October 7, 2023,
- Israel is yet to meet its objectives in the 365 sq. km enclave, sandwiched between the Mediterranean Sea and Israel proper.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to obliterate Hamas, but now even the IDF says this is not an achievable objective.
- More than 100 hostages, many of them believed to be dead, are still in Hamas’s captivity.
- Hezbollah says it will not stop firing rockets into Israel unless Israel ceases fire in Gaza. Israel cannot do this unless it meets its goals in Gaza.
- Expansion to Lebanon: Mr. Netanyahu chose to expand the war to Lebanon not because he is achieving his objectives, but because he is far from doing so.
- Granted that Israel’s back-to-back attacks on Hezbollah,
- including its killing of Hassan Nasrallah, perhaps the second most influential figure in Iran’s axis after Ayatollah Khamenei, was a huge setback for both Hezbollah and Iran.
- When Hezbollah was in shock after the killing of its leader, Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon.
- Israel faces two questions:
- First, will the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership help Israel finish the war in Gaza?
- Second, will the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership help Israel defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon?
- The answer to the first question is an outright no.
- The second question will be answered in the coming weeks, months, or years.
The historical view
History suggests decapitation hardly works in destroying or deterring militias.
- Nasrallah took over Hezbollah after Israel killed the group’s co-founder, Abbas al-Musawi.
- That did not stop Hezbollah from becoming what it is today: the most powerful non-state militia in the region. Israel killed two of Hamas’s founding leaders in 2004.
- But that did not stop Hamas from driving the Israelis out of the enclave in 2005, capturing the territory in 2007, and carrying out the cross-border attack on October 7 last year.
Key question
If Israel has not destroyed Hamas in the besieged Gaza in 12 months, how is it going to stop Hezbollah from firing rockets from Lebanon? After Nasrallah was killed, Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets into Israel.
The Iran question
- This takes us to the third problem: Iran.
- The IDF has great firepower. Israel has proved in the past that it can carry out pinpointed attacks inside Iran, which shows the deep penetration of its intelligence in the Islamic Republic.
- Israel is set to carry out a decisive attack in Iran, in retaliation for the October 1 ballistic missile attacks by the Iranians.
- But will that deter Iran from launching another attack or supporting the axis? If it doesn’t, what Israel, Iran, and the region as a whole will get is a shooting match between the two most powerful actors of West Asia.
- If Iran’s already porous deterrence is weakened further in the shooting match, there is a high possibility that Iran will change its nuclear doctrine.
- Israel does not have a clear endgame vis-à-vis Iran, unless there is a regime change in Tehran.
Conclusion
This is a conflict loop where no side is deterring its rival. With no way to break out of the loop, Israel chose to climb up the escalation ladder. To dial down the heat in the region, there has to first be a ceasefire in Gaza. For long-term stability, the Palestine question needs to be addressed. Israel is ready for neither now; it is seeking to reshape West Asia in its favour instead. The last nation to attempt such a strategy was the United States, and even the world’s most powerful country did not succeed.
Editorial 2: 100 days completed, but the work has just begun
Context
The future of youth lies in the meeting of education and skill development, where schools nurture creativity and values, and skill programmes prepare young professionals to lead in emerging industries.
Introduction
With great responsibility comes an obligation to deliver what is best for our youth and to ensure their futures are bright, productive, and successful. In just 100 days, our government is well on its way to fulfilling its responsibility of making India a global skilling hub and setting an example of excellence at scale through our comprehensive skilling roadmap. The synergies between education and skilling for livelihoods are significant. There have been many highlights over the last 100 days, but from our nation’s perspective, the work of being a skilling superpower has just begun.
Union Budget and Skilling Mission
- Union Budget announcement: which gave tremendous support and responsibility to our Ministry.
- Prime Minister’s clarion call: for how skilling and India are integrated and synonymous with India’s growth story during his 15th August address, have been encouraging and humbling.
- Linking education and skilling: Tasked not just with ensuring our children receive the best education and life skills that our government can offer, but also ensure that they are prepared for successful careers through a comprehensive skilling platform that we are putting in place.
Education and Skill Development: Twin Pillars of Progress
- Together, they bridge the gap between the dreams of youth and the reality of a prosperous, self-reliant India.
- Since assuming charge, the learning curve has been steep.
- One thing became clear early on: government reports, numbers, and policies alone cannot capture the full picture.
- We need to understand lived experiences and learn from them to understand the impact and opportunity within the National Education Policy 2020 and other Central Schemes.
- To do so, it was essential to step beyond the confines of the written word and spend extensive time with the key stakeholders and beneficiaries.
The success stories
- The PM Shri Kendriya Vidyalaya, Gomtinagar, Lucknow: where students were excelling not only academically but also in extracurricular activities.
- For example, Ashish Pandey, an extraordinary artist who aspires to be a 3D artist.
- JNV Palghar: One student, Akshita, brilliantly balanced tradition and modernity in her paintings, embodying what India’s education system aims to foster — an appreciation for heritage while embracing the future.
- Impact of skill development: This narrative of success extends beyond classrooms to the realm of skill development, where young Indians are shaping industries.
- At the National Skill Training Institute in Noida, two young women who had completed training in Artificial Intelligence (AI) developed a chatbot.
- Youth potential: Their achievement demonstrated the immense potential of India’s youth, and their dedication to mentoring others was a testament to the transformative power of skill development.
High-Impact sectors and personal development
- Education goes beyond academics: it is about preparing youth to engage with the world, to think critically, and to solve problems creatively.
- Skill development is more than technical training — it is about empowerment and ensuring that young people have the tools they need to adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing global landscape.
- To identify and support high-impact sectors: such as sports among others, from school to skilling to livelihoods, and having these benefit the personal development of individuals.
WorldSkills Competition in Lyon, France
- In skill development, significant strides have been made.
- One of the highlights was India’s participation in the WorldSkills competition in Lyon, France, where I watched proudly as 60 of our most skilled participants competed across 50 disciplines.
- Their remarkable performance showcased India’s potential to become the skill capital of the world.
- The vision is to see India rise to the top of the WorldSkills leaderboard and perhaps be engaged beyond just as a participant.
Model Skill Loan Scheme
- Another key milestone was revamping the Model Skill Loan Scheme.
- In alignment with the goals of the 2024-25 Budget, the loan limit for skilling was increased to ₹7.5 lakh, up from ₹1.5 lakh, with a broader lending network that now includes small finance banks and additional courses.
Industry-Driven Approach and Global Partnerships
- An industry-driven approach has been central to all these efforts.
- New partnerships are set to enhance our outreach and, partnering with countries such as our recent collaboration with Malaysia aims to strengthen workforce development and expertise exchange.
- The future of India’s youth lies in the meeting of education and skill development, where schools nurture creativity and values, and skill programmes prepare young professionals to lead in emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and renewable energy.
- The work ahead is critical but we have reason to be optimist..
Conclusion
Reflecting on such stories of resilience, talent, and determination evokes a deep sense of responsibility. These encounters have left a profound impact, renewing the commitment to serve with even greater dedication. Let us continue our work to build a nation where every dream has the chance to flourish, and every talent is given the opportunity to shine.
