Editorial 1: China, India and New Delhi’s Quad dilemma
Context
It would be prudent for India to proceed with care in its dealings with China on the one hand and with its Quad partners on the other.
Introduction
In September this year, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States to attend yet another meeting of the Quad nations (Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.). This turned out to be possibly the most significant meeting of the Quad to date, during which the quartet seemed to firm up what may be viewed as a security alliance.
About the Wilmington Declaration
The ‘Wilmington Declaration’ did not mention any country, least of all China by name, but left nothing to the imagination that it was aimed at the containment of China across the entire Indo-Pacific. Despite the absence of any reference to a formal mutual defence declaration, it was obvious that the “four maritime democracies” had a single objective, viz., to checkmate China.
The state of India-China ties
- Deteriorating India-China Relations: India-China relations today are not merely stalemated but are also steadily deteriorating.
- In the northern border regions, the stalemate in the Galwan region continues despite some soothing statements by India’s military and civilian leaders.
- Recently, India announced that it will maintain, if not increase, its vigilance in the border areas by inducting more forces despite the onset of winter.
- In the Depsang Plains and Demchok, there has been no breakthrough in negotiations regarding disengagement.
- In Ladakh alone, the number of ‘friction points’ has increased, with Indian forces unable to access several ‘patrolling points’ that they were previously accustomed to.
- Augmentation of Military Capabilities: The military is currently in the process of further augmenting its fighting capabilities across the entire length of the China-India border.
- It is inducting new long-range firearms and heavy artillery, and has begun to deploy howitzers, missiles, rocket systems and ‘loitering munitions’.
- While the Indian Army Chief has characterised the current situation along the Line of Actual Control as ‘stable and sensitive’, he has also stated that the Indian armed forces “are operational and fully prepared to deal with any contingency”.
- While strengthening its border capabilities, China appears unfazed by India’s moves, confident that given its defence budget (which dwarfs that of India), it can thwart any new Indian initiative.
- The China’s response: It is again true that China greatly depends on the element of surprise to achieve the best results for itself.
- Hence, while it may look unfazed at this time by talk by India acquiring ‘new alliance partners’ from the West, China is unlikely to take such a situation lightly.
- Dealing with China is never a ‘zero sum game’, and India’s leaders need to be wary and watchful of how China reacts to the developing situation.
- What is again worrying is that China under Xi Jinping seems increasingly willing in most situations to test the waters vis-à-vis its neighbours, including India.
An aggressive nationalism
- Proceeding with Care: in its dealings with China on the one hand, and with its Quad partners on the other.
- In the short term, it may be expedient not to be seen to align with countries that have openly declared their hostility to China, for Xi Jinping’s China is almost certain to treat this as a provocation, compelling it to ‘walk the talk’.
- Historical context: In this context, it is worth recalling that as far back as 2017, Mr. Xi had ominously declared that ‘China under Xi was different from China under Deng’.
- In 2021, the centenary year of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), Mr. Xi had again made a series of pronouncements which included a stern warning to all external forces “seeking to bully, oppress or subjugate China”.
- In 2022, in the course of the 20th National Congress of the CPC, statements made by China’s leaders appeared to reveal an increasingly aggressive brand of Chinese nationalism.
- Rationality and China’s behavior: Rationality is not something to be expected of China in any situation.
- India must not overlook this aspect, and should ‘read the tea leaves’ correctly in its dealings with China.
Differentiating threat perceptions in China
- Real vs. Peripheral threats: Over the years, India’s strategic experts had sought to differentiate between what in the Chinese mind constitutes a ‘real’ threat as distinct from peripheral dangers that haunt the Chinese psyche.
- Border Issues with India: From China’s postures it can be inferred that the border issue with India in the Himalayas does not represent a real threat to China’s sovereignty and to its future.
- the early 1950s, China has made territorial claims on several thousand square kilometres of Indian territory, in Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh.
- China is well aware that its claims here were based on maps that were at best ‘non-official’, created during predecessors’ regimes.
- China itself tends to doubt their sanctity though it is not willing to give up its claims.
- Eastern Seaboard and Pacific Claims: Claims regarding China’s eastern seaboard and the Pacific are viewed differently.
- Tampering with territory in these regions is perceived as a real threat to China’s existence.
- Understanding the Chinese Psyche: Understanding the difference between real and peripheral threats is crucial for comprehending the Chinese psyche.
India’s strategic community and Perception of China
- Nuanced dealing with China: India’s strategic community has long dealt with China’s quirky behavior in a nuanced manner.
- Shift in India’s stance: India appears to have shifted its stance recently, possibly due to growing alignment with the West, specifically the U.S.
- Chinese overtures: Recent statements from the Chinese Defence Ministry indicate that China and India have reduced differences and built some consensus on disengaging troops from friction points.
- These overtures may signal a shift in China’s approach, but India does not seem to take them seriously.
Beijing’s view
- China’s increasing concerns: All this serves as a backdrop to China’s increasing concerns over India’s association with the Quad — seen by it as a U.S.-sponsored ‘coalition of the willing’.
- Rumblings from China have grown stronger of late.
- To the fevered Chinese mind of today, India’s membership of the Quad represents a far more serious threat to it than the occasional skirmishes on the Himalayan heights.
- The Wilmington Declaration impact: having given up any pretence that the Quad is not a defence alliance, could well be seen by China as an indication of a grand design by the U.S. and its enemies to encircle and contain China.
- With this, China’s understanding of the threat posed by India will increase significantly.
Caution in India’s Diplomatic Signals
- Sending the right signals: India must take due care not to send out any wrong signals, as the consequences of this could be serious.
- Risks of confrontational politics: Any resort to confrontational politics, in substance and as well as in style, can have adverse repercussions in the India-China context.
- History may not repeat itself, but as Mark Twain is reported to have said, “it rhymes” enough to make one uneasy.
- India’s position on global narratives: India must not, and need not, subscribe to Mr. Xi’s notion of a ‘community of shared future of mankind’ (first mentioned almost a decade ago).
- India must not also be seen to subscribe to the West’s entrenched belief that China’s rise is inimical to the future of mankind, and that nations across the globe should join together to post a challenge to it.
Conclusion
In the context of China, it would, hence, be prudent for India not to be seen to be increasing its security congruence with the U.S. and the West. Clearly, India has no intention of being part of any pincer movement directed at China and its future ambitions, but it is equally important that China understands this — and the world recognises this as well — and has no reason to doubt where India stands in terms of Asian and world security. Any perception that India has aligned itself with the U.S. to counter China’s ambitions should be avoided. India’s future does not rely on thwarting China’s goals or assisting the U.S. in preventing this from happening.
Editorial 2: A critical message for the urban elite
Context
Our technology-enabled ecosystem could be making our cities unliveable.
Introduction
In India, this year’s summer shattered records, with red alerts issued nationwide. Over 200 lives were lost to heatwaves (official), but countless more went unrecorded. Delhi experienced an unprecedented 50+°C. With the progress of the monsoon and the memory of the extreme heat far behind us, we risk ignoring a critical warning.
Urban Heatwaves in India
- Increasing frequency and severity: In the last decade, urban areas in India have faced increasingly severe and frequent heatwaves, largely due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect.
- The UHI Effect: This phenomenon, where cities are significantly warmer than their rural counterparts, is driven by carbon-emitting human activities.
- Impact of Urban design: Urban design exacerbates this effect, with concrete, asphalt, and glass structures retaining heat.
- In corporate hubs such as Gurugram, sleek glass buildings, while modern and attractive, trap heat and increase energy consumption.
- The reflections from these buildings and the lack of green cover further worsen conditions for those outside.
The marginalised bear the brunt
- Need for immediate attention: The severity of these issues demands immediate attention, as poor urban planning disproportionately affects marginalised communities.
- Vulnerable populations affected: Delivery boys, who navigate city streets to meet the demand for online orders, face relentless heat with little relief.
- Auto drivers are directly exposed to the scorching heat of the day as they strive to earn a living.
- So do construction workers who are forced to work long hours outdoors, enduring the hot sun without adequate shade or hydration.
- Women domestic workers frequently travel by foot, and street vendors constantly battle the whims of the weather, with their earnings declining as foot traffic reduces due to the heat.
- Poor urban planning: These individuals face the harshest.
- They are on the front lines, experiencing the direct impact of rising temperatures, poor air quality, and the scarcity of green spaces.
- Privilege and inaction: Poor urban planning remains unchecked in part because the privileged, who have more influence, are less affected.
Societal Implications of the App Ecosystem
- And technology is enabling this by lulling us into inaction.
- In air-conditioned environments, the comforts provided by technology further insulate the privileged from the harsh realities of urban life, diminishing their incentive to push for change.
- Grocery delivery apps reduce the need to step outside for basic needs. For even minor repairs, we turn to apps for doorstep services, and ride-hailing apps encourage us to take cabs for short distances.
- App ecosystem: This unintended consequence of our thriving app ecosystem, built on a labour surplus economy, has not been widely discussed in public discourse and warrants a deeper examination for its societal implications.
- Our tech-enabled ecosystem has redefined the concept of “luxury”, creating a comfort trap that reduces our motivation to engage with the outside world.
- It has led to greater human domestication and a detachment from the environment around us.
- Tech coupled with privilege has also invisibilised labour, which is making us lose our empathy.
- In service complexes, guards receive deliveries at building gates, reducing our interaction with the people who serve us.
- Urban Elite and Governance: In all these instances, a common theme is that the urban elite are willing to pay a premium to trade discomfort for convenience.
- Unfortunately, the insulation of the upper classes from the external environment has profound implications for urban governance and the local economy.
Government Action and inaction
- Media and attention: When the privileged encounter issues such as poor public services or inadequate infrastructure, these problems often gain media attention, prompting governmental action.
- For instance, the flash storm in Delhi some months ago that led to the flooding of basements in posh areas and even the houses of Members of Parliament in Lutyens’ Delhi.
- This led to swift action by the authorities.
- Inequities in Public Resources: Similarly, public schools often lack resources because the affluent prefer private institutions.
- And public transportation receives less focus and funding as the elite avoid using it.
- Vicious cycle of technology and urban life: Heatwaves force people indoors, and technology enables this behaviour, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
- Worsening urban conditions increase reliance on technology.
- Wealthy demand fewer public service improvements, making cities less liveable for everyone.
- Broader societal Implications: Technology integration reshapes expectations of urban living but does not improve the quality of life for the general populace.
- Instead, it aggravates existing inequalities and creates new ones.
Conclusion: The need to reconnect
The real challenge lies in breaking free from this comfort trap. Reconnecting with our cities and each other is not just a noble goal; it is essential for our collective survival. We have to snap out of our false sense of comfort and recognise that our world is changing in fundamental ways. We are losing our public spaces and our ability to enjoy outdoor activities due to increasingly frequent extreme weather events. The urban elite must, therefore, leverage their privilege to actively engage with governments and help improve living conditions in our cities. We can only hope to create equitable and livable urban spaces for all by confronting the true state of our cities.
