Editorial 1: A perilous highway to salvation in the Himalayas

Context

There is growing scientific evidence that the Char Dham Highway Project will have catastrophic consequences for the mountain ecology.

Introduction

The 900-kilometre long, 12-metre wide, two-lane Char Dham Highway Project to boost religious tourism to four shrines will end up as an endeavour with catastrophic consequences for the mountain ecology. The conclusions of a scientific paper written recently by a group of authors led by Jürgen Mey of the Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Germany, confirm the worst fears expressed by the experts. This supposedly all-weather road project, at an outlay of ₹12,000 crore, was initiated despite intense opposition by environmental organisations in Uttarakhand, who called it unscientific.

Domino effect

Overview of the study: The paper presents the study results of fully or partially road-blocking landslides between Rishikesh and Joshimath, along National Highway (NH-7) in Uttarakhand.
- Based on instances of more than 300 landslides along the 250 km-long corridor after exceptionally high rainfall between September and October 2022, the study identified “309 fully or partially road-blocking landslides along the 247 km long road, which amounts to an average landslide density of 1.25 landslides per kilometre”.
Key variables identified: While identifying variables such as slope angle, rainfall amount, and lithology as the controlling factors, the study singles out “the road-widening [as] having a doubling impact on the road-blocking landslides”.
- The construction has now proved to be the prime cause of landslides, whose occurrences have doubled over the years.
- Deaths and accidents on the Char Dham road have become a daily occurrence during the pilgrimage season.
Previous reports by experts: his conclusion supports the earlier expert committee reports — overruled by the authorities — that had flagged improper construction practices during the road widening work in the Uttarakhand Himalayas.
Climate Change predictions: The researchers have also predicted an uptick in summer monsoon precipitation due to elevation-dependent warming in the years to come.
- Thus, landslides and fatalities will become more frequent as climate change prediction models suggest more frequent extreme rainfall events.
- The study underscores that important environmental caveats must be respected before commencing any mammoth engineering project in the Indian Himalayas.
Government justifications: The authorities put forth the reason for wanting “smoother” and “faster all-weather” connectivity for pilgrim tourists from the plains and the armed forces and armaments,
- but the engineering interventions have been done with scant regard to the local geology and environment.
- The government has ignored its original policy framework recommending “best practice” norms for infrastructural expansion in mountainous regions to minimise the negative impact on the mountain ecosystems and landscapes.

What have been the violations in the project?

The project, which was initiated under the ‘Char Dham Pariyojana’, is in fundamental violation of all environmental norms and conservation strategies that need to be followed in the Himalayas.
The government used a technical loophole and divided the project into 50-plus smaller projects to bypass environmental clearance and impact assessment reports.
Calling the project a ‘geological and ecological fraud, the petitioners have argued that the roads were longer than 100 km in some stretches and would have a cumulative impact on the whole region.
Land encroachment combined with the blasting and the cutting of slopes for developmental projects causes additional stress on a fragile ecosystem.
One accepts that roads are the lifeline of remote mountainous regions, but such megaprojects must fully consider the region’s environmental fragility.

What has been the Supreme Courts intervention?

Defended by Supreme Court: Though the project began as a tourism project, it was finally defended in the Supreme Court of India as a defence-related requirement for moving troops and armaments,
- ignoring the point that the defence forces can airlift troops and heavy artillery during emergencies.
Courts viewpoint: The Court initially favouring a narrower intermediate road width for the highways (5.5 m), based on the recommendation of an expert committee appointed in 2019 and a Ministry of Road Transport and Highways’ circular of 2018.
Courts permission: But the Court finally permitted the Union Government to go ahead with the project on widening the hill roads from a national security angle.

No scientific assessment

Concerns Over massive projects: It is a matter of concern that such massive projects are getting the go-ahead without any scientific assessment especially in an unstable and fragile region such as the Indian Himalayas.
- A key question is this: is mountain morphology, with steep slopes and sharp gradients, easily amenable to human engineering?
- Unlike the hinterland in the mountains, the steep gradients of the Uttarakhand Himalaya or the Himachal Himalaya make them dynamically heterogeneous in terms of climatic variables and hydrological and tectonic processes at every turn of the mountain path.
Recurrent landslide issues: A widened road faces problems now as it is constantly blocked by recurrent landslides.
- It is most likely that this project will end up not being what it was envisioned to be.
- Not only would the movement of troops or armaments be delayed in critical moments but also much time and resources would have to be used to clear or reconstruct damaged road stretches.
- Year-wise statistics show a rise in the loss of human lives.
- In the last four years, 160 people have lost their life in landslide incidents in Uttarakhand, according to the National Crime Records Bureau.
Impact of construction activities: The entire region has been destabilised due to massive construction activities.
- Ground subsidence is now recognised as a “silent disaster” in many parts of the Himalayas.
- In a study published in Scientific Reports this year, widely reported land deformation in Joshimath town is being attributed to uncontrolled anthropogenic activities, infrastructural development and inadequate drainage systems.
- Recently, it has been reported that the Tungnath temple in the Rudraprayag district is facing serious issues such as subsidence, weakening foundation and shifting wall slates, which have caused water leakage especially during the rainy season.
Government response to issues: Unsurprisingly, the Border Roads Organisation is now seeking clearance to widen the Gangotri-Dharasu stretch in the fragile Bhagirathi Eco-Sensitive Zone, whose integrity is important for the ecology of the Ganga river near its origin.

The issue of local distress

Depopulation in Uttarakhand village: According to Census 2011, of Uttarakhand’s 16,793 villages, 1,053 have no inhabitants, while another 405 have a population of less than 10 people.
- This situation must have been aggravated recently since large-scale infrastructural projects were brought into the hill State.
Impact of Migration: Internal and external migration have led to depopulation and land abandonment in rural areas despite the State government’s initiatives in incentivising agriculture.
Road widening and tourism effects: Road widening, that promotes increased motorised tourism, will encourage entrepreneurs from the plains to set up hotels and business centres,
- It is often forcing the local people to opt for employment in the tourism industry rather than sticking to farming.
Environmental and economic factors: Environmental factors such as the depletion of water resources and other emerging hazards may have resulted in people leaving the agriculture sectors.
- With low returns from the land, farmers sell their lands to private entrepreneurs from the plains.

Way Forward

The State government is countering this trend by framing laws against selling land to outsiders, but this is a step that will not mitigate the local distress caused by human-induced environmental degradation. The State government claims that Uttarakhand’s GSDP has increased 1.3 times in 20 months and that the unemployment rate has decreased by 4.4% in one year. By its admission, people in the State have obtained more employment in tourism.

Conclusion

Making feel-good speeches on climate-change resilience in COP meetings while implementing disaster-prone infrastructure in the country’s most fragile area proves a double standard. The Himalayas face multifaceted environmental challenges that require well-thought-out sustainable pathways. The Union and State governments must scale down these ongoing massive construction programmes, which include dams, and formulate sound ecological solutions for the mess they have already created and it neds to be sustained.

Editorial 2: Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine

Context

With improvements, the ‘Mausam Mission’ will transform how weather information can help India become climate smart

Introduction

The monsoon season this year in India has been one of the worst in recent times, with recurrent flooding impacting most States. According to a 2021 study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), approximately 40% of districts in India experience alternating climatic hazards, which means that flood-prone regions are also facing droughts during the dry season and vice-versa. Separately, an analysis of 40 years of rainfall data by CEEW shows that there has been an increase of up to 64% in heavy rainfall days during the monsoons over the last decade.

Extreme weather needs better forecasting

Current Scenario: In this increasingly complex scenario, while nearly two-thirds of India’s population are exposed to flood risks, only a third of the flood-prone population is covered by early warning systems.
- This is in stark contrast to cyclone early warning systems which cover all cyclone-prone areas in the country.
- It is evident that India must invest in enhancing weather forecasting and bringing technological innovation to the forefront, as a safety net, to address the growing extreme weather risks.
The ‘Mission Mausam’: that was approved in September 2024, broadly focuses on
- increasing India’s weather observation network
- improving weather forecasting models
- investigating weather modification techniques
Mission implementation: The mission will be implemented primarily by three institutes under
- the Ministry of Earth Sciences, namely the India Meteorological Department (IMD),
- the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and
- the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
Financial outlay: The ₹2,000 crore initiative aims to augment the weather observation network using a variety of instruments while also improving forecasting models through an improved understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and the integration of machine-learning approaches.
Key pathways for ‘Mission Mausam’: To harness its potential, India must expand its forecasting capabilities in areas that face a high climate risk and make data widely available for developing use cases across sectors such as energy, agriculture and water.

Gaps in radar coverage, limited data access

Target areas for installation: First, prioritise installing weather observation platforms on India’s western coast and in large urban centres facing high climate risks.
Current Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Infrastructure: India has 39 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) to monitor rainfall, with many covering a radius of 250 kilometres.
- These provide short-term forecasts, ranging from minutes to a few hours, of extreme rainfall events.
- Nine of these radars are located in the Himalayan States, eight along the eastern coast, and 17 located in various Indian cities.
- The remaining five are on the west coast.
Need for additional coverage: Recent studies indicate that cyclones are becoming more frequent and intense in the Arabian Sea.
- But, as said, only five radars monitor the entire west coast.
- Even key cities such as Ahmedabad (Gujarat), Bengaluru (Karnataka), and Jodhpur (Rajasthan), which have faced repeated flooding recently, do not have radars as yet.

Therefore, ‘Mission Mausam’ should prioritise the installation of weather radars and other observational platforms in areas that have not been covered as yet and which face growing climate risks.

Open Access to Weather Data

Importance of Data Availability: make weather data openly available for researchers and entrepreneurs to develop use cases.
- Open access to weather data helps in the analysis of trends and in understanding the causes behind extreme weather events better.
- It also helps in the creation of localised early warning tools.
Global examples of open data: For instance, the United States has made the data from its 160 DWRs openly available which has resulted in the creation of several analytical tools to support local governments.
- Similarly, the United Kingdom, France, and the European Union have made their weather forecasting data available on cloud for anyone to access.
Current limitations in India: While the IMD shares data through its data supply portal, restrictions remain on the volume of data provided.
- Moreover, the data on the portal is not freely available to researchers from academic institutions and think tanks.
Recommendations for ‘Mission Mausam’: ‘Mission Mausam’ should establish infrastructure to distribute data generated by the new instruments, such as weather radars, wind profilers and radiometers, in the public domain.
- Moreover, the data from the weather forecasting models developed as part of the mission should also be placed in the public domain for researchers to validate and provide suggestions for improvement.
- This will foster innovation and localised decision-making.

Reaching out to users

Current Communication Channels: communication tools for weather warnings and enhance user capacity.
- The IMD disseminates weather information through multiple channels, which include web and mobile applications.
- Over the years, the web application has been significantly strengthened to the extent that it now provides district-wise weather warnings that range from an hour to the next four days of forecast.
User experience enhancements: However, the user experience could be improved further.
- While the tool offers helpful warnings, providing users with guidance on how to interpret these warnings would enhance their experience.
Focus areas: ‘Mission Mausam’ must focus on enhancing users’ capacity to understand and act on warnings through informative videos, media, and guides.