Editorial 1: A 2024 election result that leaves many astounded
Context
Donald Trump’s rise to prominence highlights a democratic flaw — the absence of a socially aware and informed electorate that focuses on the greater good.
Introduction
“Since Plato’s Republic 2,300 years ago, philosophers have understood the process by which demagogues come to power in free and fair elections, only to overthrow democracy and establish tyrannical rule. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out.” — Jason Stanley, ‘The End of US Democracy Was All Too Predictable’. India and the United States, two of the world’s most prominent democracies, are facing significant challenges.
- India: systemic issues: India, despite being the most populous democracy, struggles with systemic issues that hinder its ability to function fairly and freely.
- United States social and equality issues: The U.S., the most prosperous democracy, guarantees its citizens life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, but still grapples with issues of race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation that undermine the true spirit of democracy.
- Vulnerabilities in democracy: The recent U.S. presidential election has clearly exposed democracy’s vulnerabilities, sparking concerns about its effectiveness when voters choose leaders with tainted records.
Breaking down the voter demographic
- Donald Trump’s polarising personality: may have captured the headlines, but it is the American electorate that has propelled him to victory.
- Educational divide in U.S. voting patterns: According to Pew Research Center, white voters without a bachelor’s degree were more likely to associate with the Republican Party, with 63% identifying as Republicans.
- In comparison, 33% of these voters would align with the Democratic Party.
- This educational divide has become more pronounced over the past two decades, with white voters without a college degree favouring the Republican Party and those with a college degree moving toward the Democratic Party.
- 2024 Campaign Success and Multi-Ethnic Coalition: Mr. Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign visibly resonated with millions, securing him another term in office.
- This outcome can be attributed to several factors, including his ability to create a multi-ethnic working-class coalition.
- Trump made notable strides among Latinos and African-Americans, especially men, which contributed to his success.
- This raises important questions about the values and priorities of the American people, and whether they are willing to overlook Mr. Trump’s controversies in favour of his policy agenda.
- High Stakes for American Democracy: The stakes of the 2024 U.S. election could not be higher, as it represents a make-or-break moment for American democracy.
- Trump’s return to power has sent jitters across the globe, and for good reason.
- Global and Domestic Concerns: Many countries are anxious about the potential implications of his presidency, particularly in terms of international relations and global stability.
- Within the U.S., non-white minorities, legal settlers, African-Americans, and undocumented immigrants are bracing themselves for the impact of hard right-wing policies driven by nationalist sentiment.
- The uncertainty surrounding the citizenship status of newborn children is a significant concern.
- The potential consequences of Trump’s presidency on global relations, domestic policy, and marginalised communities are indeed significant.
Authoritarian rise
- Global Trend of Authoritarian Pressure: Moreover, we are witnessing a disturbing global trend where even robust democracies are buckling under authoritarian pressure.
- Hungary, once a beacon of democratic success in the post-Communist world, has evolved into the European Union’s sole absolutism in just over a decade.
- Countries such as Turkey, Israel, or South Asian democracies have seen authoritarian tendencies rise over the years.
- 37 out of 104 democracies worldwide have experienced significant relapse since 2016.
- The red flags are clear: wearing away of democratic institutions, manipulation of information, and the rise of acrimonious politics.
- Experts warn that democratic decline is often incremental, with autocratic leaders exploiting democratic institutions to consolidate power.
What was the Bertram Gross’s warning on America’s drift toward authoritarianism?
- Bertram Gross, a former presidential adviser, ominously warned, “As I look at America today, I am not afraid to say that I am afraid.”
- His concern stems from America’s alarming drift towards authoritarianism, fuelled by a deeply divided and distracted citizenry.
- The “Deep State” strategists have subtly erected the framework for tyranny, leveraging militarised law enforcement and bureaucratic red tapism.
- This alarming drift has persisted across the last five decades, outdoing party lines.
- Though this renders the resident of the White House relatively insignificant, there is a growing concern about the potential consequences of Mr. Trump’s return.
What are the concerns about Trump’s return to power?
- Given his past actions, campaign promises, and the Supreme Court’s decisions effectively granting him legal immunity, many fear his administration would target liberal democracy’s core principles without any culpability.
- The Republican Party, the Senate, the House of Representatives and the judiciary are now in his firm grip, thereby cementing a G.O.P. trifecta.
- This could lead to a concentration of power and diminished checks on Mr. Trump’s actions.
- The question to ask is: Will the U.S. follow Hungary’s path, or will it find a way to strengthen its democratic foundations?
- The 2024 election, which seemed to be a pivotal moment in determining the answer, has left many astounded by the result.
What is the Trump’s Project 2025 and Schedule F Proposal?
- Mr. Trump’s statements and policy documents, including Project 2025, reveal a systematic plan of a demagogue to transform the government into an extension of his personal will, emulating the authoritarian approach of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán.
- A key proposal is the revival of Mr. Trump’s Schedule F order, which would allow the firing of about 50,000 career civil servants, undermining the merit-based civil service system.
- This move would grant Mr. Trump unprecedented control over the bureaucracy, enabling him to replace nonpartisan civil servants with loyalists.
What are the possible consequences for democracy and the Civil Service?
- The stakes are high, as politicising the civil service would hinder essential government functions that millions rely on, thereby paving the way for autocracy.
- His plans would degrade federal employment, and potentially lead to bullying tactics by hounding the minorities that he has throughout dehumanised or ruthlessly penalised those who have been his antagonists.
- With Mr. Trump’s team prepared to implement these changes swiftly, the consequences for democracy and the civil service are alarming.
A message for the democratic world
- Introduction: Trump’s enduring appeal: As is obvious from the election outcome, Mr. Trump’s enduring grip on the American right is a phenomenon that has puzzled observers for nearly a decade.
- Despite the turmoil and the controversy surrounding his first term, culminating in his refusal to concede the 2020 election, Mr. Trump remained a formidable force throughout the current election.
- Key factors driving Trump’s appeal: His unwavering appeal can be attributed to various factors, including his unapologetic stance on key issues.
- His campaign has consistently emphasised a “return” to fossil fuel dominance, pledging to boost oil and natural gas production and roll back environmental regulations.
- This approach is broadly appreciated by voters seeking energy independence and job creation.
- Challenges in Enhancing Democracy’s Effectiveness: To improve democracy’s effectiveness, it is essential to address challenges and ensure that democratic governments prioritise citizens’ welfare, equality, and accountability.
- Demographic Resonance of Trump’s Campaign: The 2024 U.S. presidential election, particularly the Trump campaign, highlights his divisive rhetoric and policies that seem to have resonated with a specific demographic:
- disgruntled, underemployed or unemployed, and
- undereducated white males who feel threatened by immigration and societal shifts.
- Mr. Trump’s popularity reveals a desire among many Americans for a homogeneous world order rooted in whiteness, bigotry, misogyny, and heterosexuality.
- Despite his pomposity, he has tapped into deep-seated anxieties and frustrations among certain segments of the population.
- Trump’s more message: His message of economic nationalism, immigration reform, and an “America First” rhetoric has struck a chord with many who feel left behind by globalisation and cultural shifts.
- A political landscape driven by contentious magniloquence has led many to feel that democracy under him will fail to deliver on its promise of inclusivity, equality, and protection for all citizens, regardless of race, colour, gender, or creed.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s rise to prominence exposes a concerning truth: many voters, particularly the mindless uneducated lot, may not fully understand the responsibilities of democratic citizenship or the risks of electing an unqualified leader, thereby emphasising that democracy as an idea might be flawed. This highlights the need for a socially aware and civically informed electorate, willing to look beyond personal biases and prioritise the greater good. It is time the American public saw the importance of reining in their runaway government, reclaiming their freedoms, and restoring justice in America.
Editorial 2: Leverage similarity, complementarity in Nigeria
Context
India’s hard and soft power in Nigeria might look impressive, but much ground has been lost over the past decade.
Introduction
On November 16-17, 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and second largest economy. Though on his first visit to that country, he may still find it familiar: from Airtel to Bajaj, Bollywood to Cipla and TVS to Tata, India is ubiquitous in Nigeria. Thanks to a shared Commonwealth legacy and similar challenges, the two multi-ethnic, large developing democracies face identical issues: improved governance, socio-economic development, terrorism and corruption. At the same time, they have complementarity in such strategic areas as hydrocarbons, defence, institution building, health care and education. Leveraging this milieu of similarity and complementarity can catapult the Abuja Summit from “successful” to “historic”.
- Substantive assets on the ground: Substantive assets on the ground are available for this endeavour.
- There are more than 150 Indian companies with footprints in Nigeria with investments estimated at $27 billion.
- With bilateral trade at $7.9 billion, India is Nigeria’s second largest trading partner.
- Nearly 50,000 Indians in Nigeria, the largest Oyibo (non-African) group in the country are well regarded for their low profile, professionalism and integrity.
- Nigerians flock to India for trade, medical treatment and education.
- Decline in bilateral relations: India’s hard and soft power in Nigeria might look impressive, but it has lost ground over the past decade.
- The bilateral trade is half its peak a decade ago when India was Nigeria’s largest trading partner.
- Despite being the top buyer of Nigerian crude, India has no upstream assets there.
What are the reasons behind stagnancy?
- There are multiple reasons behind this stagnancy.
- To begin with, a more effective and comprehensive framework is indispensable for bilateral renewal and upgrading through frequent contacts.
- The Prime Minister’s visit takes place after 17 years and the last meeting of the bilateral joint commission, this year, was after 13 years.
- Nigeria is too big and important a partner for India to channel its development assistance multilaterally through the African Union.
- India also needs to better leverage the local Indian diaspora, Nigeria’s second-largest employer.
- The two vibrant private sectors should be better empowered through a platform, preferably with financial and underpinning.
- With foresight and a judicious mix of ambition and sensitivity, India and Nigeria can forge a win-win synergy.
What are the Nigeria’s current economic and political challenges?
- Nigeria, which is currently facing several economic and security headwinds, is looking for friends such as India for help.
- Since coming to power in 2023, President Bola Tinubu has acted with political courage.
- Unlike most of his predecessors who merely kicked the can of worms down the road, he has confronted long-standing national challenges.
- The measures taken include withdrawing petroleum subsidies costing $10 billion annually, freeing the national currency, the Naira, of controls (leading to a steep depreciation and 32% annual inflation), and dismissing several functionaries including the Central Bank Governor, Head of Secret Service and military brass
- These have upended the economy and caused public disaffection.
- In a recent speech, President Tinubu defended these stiff measures as necessary for national rejuvenation and assured the public that the worst was over.
Where India could help
- Long-Term attractiveness of Nigeria for India: Despite the current eco-political conundrum, Nigeria retains its long-term attractiveness for India as a major hydrocarbon supplier, a large market with physical and social infrastructure deficit, and growth potential.
- While its occasionally stained reputation calls for due diligence and caution, macro-economic management is quite competent and the sovereign commitments are upheld.
- Expectations from the Modi visit: The Nigerian leadership has high expectations from the Modi visit.
- Among its top concerns is upgrading its defence and security services to meet the terrorism and economic anarchy-related challenges such as Boko Haram, oil bunkering, Gulf of Guinea piracy, and a turbulent neighbourhood.
- India’s expertise in addressing Nigeria’s security needs: Having overcome similar challenges at home, India is well experienced and equipped to help Nigeria through a comprehensive package of defence supplies, training, and remote sensing.
- This can, in turn, boost India’s defence exports and revive bilateral defence ties epitomised by seven Nigerian Presidents since independence in 1960 being trained in India as defence officers.
- Nigeria’s request for economic stabilisation support: An equally urgent Nigerian requirement would be to seek India’s help for economic stabilisation as it faces a critical foreign exchange shortage.
- India could best do so through some strategic initiatives such as partnerships for upstream hydrocarbons and infrastructure, a bilateral comprehensive economic partnership agreement and large financial facilitation through lines of credit and barter arrangements.
- Key areas for India’s support: India can provide the Nigerian requirements of petroleum products, foodstuffs (rice, wheat, milk powder), consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, compressed natural gas conversion kits, textiles and garments, agricultural inputs, and power equipment.
- The possibility of rupee-based trade can also be put on the table.
- Other complementarities to be leveraged would include importing palm oil, hides and skins, ginger, and Gum Arabic.
- Reviving bilateral trade: Such moves would arrest the 29.7% year-on-year decline in India’s exports in 2023-24 to $3.6 billion.
- Moreover, it would help locate other drivers for bilateral trade as India now buys less Nigerian crude.
- Supporting India’s services exports: Though less tangible, India’s services exports in areas such as Information Technology (IT) and IT-enabled services, banking, financial services and insurance, health care, skilling and education also deserve support.
Conclusion: Half a millennium of shared history
A less known but interesting historical snippet is about the first direct bilateral contact. A hazy legend traces it to the arrival around 1500 AD of Baba Ghor, a gem merchant from Kano (now in northern Nigeria) who settled down in Ratanpur in Gujarat. He is still revered as a saint and for devising a method to polish agate stones. We need a similar impetus today to make the natural bilateral ties more lustrous.
