WHY IS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FALLING IN INDIA? WHAT ARE ITS IMPLICATION ON POPULATION EXPLOSION?
India, a country with one of the largest populations in the world, has witnessed a significant decline in its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) over the past few decades. The TFR in India is now approaching the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This demographic shift has important implications for the country’s population dynamics and future growth. Understanding the causes and implications of this decline is crucial for policy-making and sustainable development.
Factors Contributing to the Decline in TFR in India
a) Improved Access to Family Planning
- Government Initiatives: India has implemented several family planning programs since the 1950s. Programs like National Family Planning Program (1952), Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), and the Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan (PMSMA) have significantly increased access to contraception and family planning services.
- Contraceptive Use: According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019-20), contraceptive use in India has risen substantially. For example, the use of modern contraceptive methods among married women in India has increased to 56.3% (NFHS-5), which has contributed to a decline in fertility rates.
b) Rising Female Education and Empowerment
- Education of Women: The increase in female literacy rates has played a crucial role in reducing fertility rates. According to NFHS-5, literacy rates among women have improved to 70.3%, and educated women tend to have fewer children. Educated women also tend to marry later, further delaying childbirth and reducing the total number of children.
- Women’s Workforce Participation: More women in urban and rural India are joining the workforce. This shift leads to delayed marriage and childbirth, contributing to lower fertility rates.
c) Urbanization and Changing Lifestyles
- Urbanization: The growth of cities has been associated with smaller family sizes. Urban areas provide better access to healthcare, family planning resources, and education, leading to reduced fertility rates. For example, in Tamil Nadu, where urbanization is higher, the TFR has decreased significantly.
- Lifestyle Changes: Urban lifestyles emphasize career development, personal freedom, and economic stability, which encourage smaller families. Additionally, the increased cost of living in cities also discourages having larger families.
d) Improved Health and Child Survival Rates
- Reduced Infant Mortality: Significant improvements in healthcare have drastically reduced infant and child mortality rates. In India, the infant mortality rate (IMR) fell from 69 per 1,000 live births in 2001 to 28 in 2020 (as per the Sample Registration System). This reduction in child mortality means families no longer feel the need to have more children to ensure some survive.
- Healthcare Access: Better maternal health services have led to safer pregnancies and deliveries, reducing the perceived need for large families.
e) Government Policies and Social Security
- Subsidized Healthcare and Incentives: Policies like the National Health Mission have focused on reducing fertility rates by providing maternal healthcare, immunization, and family planning services, including financial incentives for small families.
- Social Security and Welfare Programs: As the social security system improves, families rely less on children for economic security, reducing the need for larger families.
TFR in India and Tamil Nadu: Statistical Data
- India: According to the NFHS-5 (2019-20), the TFR in India stands at 2.0, which is at the replacement level fertility. This marks a significant decline from the 3.4 TFR recorded in 1991.
- Tamil Nadu: Tamil Nadu has historically had lower fertility rates compared to the national average. According to the NFHS-5 (2019-20), Tamil Nadu’s TFR stands at 1.6, which is significantly below the replacement level, reflecting the state’s advanced healthcare infrastructure, education systems, and social welfare policies.
- Comparative Trends: The TFR of India has been steadily declining, but states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and some other southern states have reached levels well below the national average due to earlier investments in health, education, and women’s empowerment.
Implications of Falling TFR on Population Explosion
a) Slower Population Growth
- A falling TFR leads to slower population growth, as fewer children are being born. India, which has been grappling with the issue of population explosion, is now seeing a trend of population stabilization. According to the United Nations Population Division, India’s population growth rate is expected to slow significantly over the next few decades.
- The population growth rate in India, which was 1.5% per annum in 2011, is projected to decline to 0.9% by 2031. This marks a significant change from the rapid growth seen in the 20th century.
b) Demographic Dividend
- The decline in fertility, coupled with the working-age population’s growing share (15-59 years), offers India a demographic dividend. The working-age population is set to increase, providing a potential boost to economic growth. However, this dividend will be short-lived if the country fails to capitalize on it through education, skills development, and employment creation.
- Tamil Nadu has already seen the benefits of a demographic dividend, with a rapidly expanding working-age population. The state’s focus on education and healthcare has helped create a skilled workforce.
c) Aging Population
- One significant implication of falling fertility rates is an aging population. As the number of births decreases and life expectancy increases, the proportion of elderly people in the population rises. This trend is likely to place increased pressure on the healthcare system, social security systems, and pensions.
- India’s elderly population (aged 60 years and above) is projected to grow from 8.6% of the total population in 2011 to 20% by 2050. In Tamil Nadu, the proportion of elderly is already higher than the national average, which requires targeted policies for geriatric care and pension systems.
d) Potential for Sustainable Development
- With fewer children being born, India has an opportunity to reduce the strain on resources such as water, energy, and land. This is especially relevant in the context of climate change and the need for environmental sustainability.
- As fertility rates fall, families may also be able to invest more in each child’s education, improving human capital and contributing to long-term economic growth.
Challenges and Way Forward
- Managing the Aging Population: With a falling fertility rate, India will need to focus on policies to manage an aging population, ensuring adequate healthcare, pensions, and social support systems.
- Economic Impact: The falling working-age population will require India to adapt by focusing on labor force participation, especially among women and the elderly, and improving productivity through automation and technological innovation.
- Regional Disparities: While southern states like Tamil Nadu are ahead in fertility decline, northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to have higher fertility rates. Addressing these regional disparities through focused family planning and education programs will be essential.
Conclusion
The decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India, driven by factors like improved family planning, female empowerment, urbanization, and better healthcare, marks a critical phase in the country’s demographic transition. While the implications for population explosion are positive, leading to population stabilization, India faces challenges like an aging population and the need to harness the demographic dividend effectively. Targeted policies, investment in human capital, and social security for the elderly are essential to ensure that the benefits of falling fertility are realized without exacerbating economic or social challenges.
