Editorial #1 A surge in radical governments, the hope of democracy
Introduction
Recent global and regional developments underline the resurgence of radical regimes and their implications for stability, particularly in India’s neighborhood. The rise of Islamic radicalism, evident from developments in Syria, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, necessitates a calibrated and pragmatic approach by India to safeguard its national security and bilateral relations.
Global Context: Patterns of Radicalism and Response
Afghanistan: The Taliban’s Takeover (2021)
- Event: The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. This marked the beginning of significant geopolitical shifts, with $7.1 billion worth of U.S. weaponry left behind and terrorist attacks claiming lives.
- Global Response:
- Despite initial shock, major powers like the U.S., Russia, and China engaged with the Taliban, citing counter-terrorism cooperation and commitments to inclusivity.
- The UNSC’s Resolution 2593, passed under India’s presidency, sought to prevent Afghanistan’s soil from being used for terrorism, specifically targeting groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- However, subsequent global apathy allowed the Taliban to reverse commitments on women’s rights and inclusive governance.
Syria: A New Radical Shift (2024)
- Event: Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a leader with links to al Qaeda, overthrew President Bashar al-Assad, establishing a radical regime.
- Global Response: Mirroring Afghanistan, Western powers legitimized the new regime, lifting bounties and engaging diplomatically. This emboldened extremist factions in Africa and West Asia, diverting attention from critical regions like South Asia.
Bangladesh: Brewing Instability in India’s Neighborhood
Current Crisis
- Political Shift: The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government and the rise of an interim military-led regime under Muhammad Yunus has led to growing tolerance for radical Islamic groups.
- Radical Resurgence:
- Groups like the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam, and IS-Khorasan Province have gained ground.
- Minority communities face heightened attacks, and anti-India rhetoric is conflated with dismantling Sheikh Hasina’s legacy.
Historical Context
- The 2008 elections marked a turning point with Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League defeating Khaleda Zia’s BNP and its radical allies. The last 16 years witnessed closer India-Bangladesh ties, underpinned by mutual benefits.
- The 2024 military coup and student protests have, however, provided radical groups a platform to regain influence.
Implications for India
Security Threats
- Renewed radicalism in Bangladesh poses a direct threat to India’s eastern borders. Groups like ABT and ISKP could exploit instability to foment cross-border terrorism.
Diplomatic Challenges
- India must navigate its response cautiously, avoiding polarization along religious lines while protecting its national interests.
- Lessons from the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) mutiny underline the importance of India’s role in stabilizing its neighbor and preserving democratic institutions.
Broader Concerns: Rise of Religious Hate Globally
- India’s Efforts at the UN: As India’s Permanent Representative to the UN, the country highlighted the rise of religiophobia against non-Abrahamic religions, advocating for a universal condemnation of religious hate.
- Global Trends: The rise of radical regimes is intertwined with increasing religious intolerance, demanding collective international efforts to address these challenges.
Conclusion
Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. While the military coup poses immediate challenges, it is essential to prevent it from devolving into an Islamic coup akin to Syria or Afghanistan. India, having played a pivotal role in stabilizing Bangladesh in 2009, must now engage pragmatically to ensure the continuity of democratic principles and prevent radical ideologies from gaining further traction.
The silver lining lies in Bangladesh’s democratic legacy, which, once embraced, becomes difficult to reverse. India must remain vigilant, balancing its bilateral relations with proactive measures to curb extremism and safeguard regional stability.
