Editorial #1 It’s Russian roulette in the skies
Editorial: Russian Roulette in the Skies
Introduction
Civil aviation, once considered a safe and convenient mode of transport, is increasingly vulnerable to risks posed by military conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The growing trend of state actors and non-state entities targeting civilian aircraft highlights the urgent need for enhanced training, stricter protocols, and improved operational preparedness to safeguard the skies.
Historical Incidents: Lessons from the Past
1. Korean Airlines Flight 007 (1983):
A tragic example of misidentification, this flight was shot down by a Russian Sukhoi fighter due to navigational deviation. The loss of 269 lives, including passengers and crew, underscores the consequences of flawed conflict risk management. Although efforts to establish rules through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) were initiated, they faced resistance from Russia and its allies.
2. Iran Air Flight 655 (1988):
During the Iran-Iraq war, a U.S. Navy warship, USS Vincennes, mistakenly shot down this civilian aircraft, killing all 290 on board. The incident exposed the risks of inadequate identification protocols in conflict zones.
3. Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 (2014):
Shot down by Russian-backed forces over eastern Ukraine, this tragedy claimed 298 lives and highlighted the vulnerability of aircraft flying over war zones.
4. DHL Cargo Plane (2003):
A surface-to-air missile struck a cargo plane shortly after takeoff from Baghdad. The crew’s exceptional skill in landing the aircraft using only differential engine thrust avoided further casualties.
5. Indian Air Force Mi-17 Helicopter (2019):
A case of fratricide during the post-Balakot air skirmish, where the IAF’s own surface-to-air missile brought down the helicopter, killing six personnel. This incident underscores the critical need for accurate identification systems.
6. Azerbaijani Airliner Incident (2024):
A recent crash, potentially caused by a Russian anti-aircraft defence system after the aircraft veered off course due to fog, serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing risks in conflict zones.
Modern Risks in Civil Aviation
1. Conflict Zones:
The rise in conflicts worldwide makes flying over or near war-torn regions increasingly dangerous. Countries with aggressive postures and rogue elements using advanced technologies like GPS spoofing exacerbate these risks.
2. Post-9/11 Procedures:
New protocols demand strict adherence to navigation and communication procedures. Yet, incidents like Jet Airways Flight 9W 118 (2017), where communication lapses almost led to disaster, reveal the need for greater vigilance and training.
3. Proliferation of Missiles and Drones:
The widespread use of surface-to-air missiles and drones by state and non-state actors has increased the vulnerability of civilian flights.
Broader Concerns: The Indian Context
1. Operational Readiness and Training:
India’s rapidly expanding aviation sector raises questions about pilot proficiency and preparedness. Reports of GPS errors and failures over regions such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Myanmar highlight the need for comprehensive training to handle such scenarios.
2. Regulatory Oversight:
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has been conspicuously silent on critical safety issues, such as the adequacy of pilot training, navigation protocols, and equipment readiness for extended flights over conflict-prone regions.
3. Skill Deficiency in Rapid Expansion:
With a surge in airline operations, concerns about the quality of training and monitoring of pilots are growing. The pressure to train large numbers of pilots in short durations often leads to skill degradation, increasing the likelihood of human error during critical situations.
4. Aircraft Readiness:
Instances of leased aircraft in India being ill-equipped for long-haul flights over mountainous terrain or conflict regions highlight gaps in operational planning and preparedness.
The Need for Global Action
1. Strengthening ICAO Guidelines:
The international community must collaborate to establish and enforce stricter guidelines for civil aviation over conflict zones. Resistance from certain nations must be addressed through diplomatic engagement and consensus-building.
2. Enhancing Pilot Training:
Airlines globally, including in India, must implement rigorous training programs to prepare pilots for navigation challenges, including GPS spoofing, jamming, and conflict zone protocols.
3. Technology and Innovation:
Investments in advanced aircraft technologies, such as automated threat detection systems and enhanced communication tools, can mitigate risks in hostile airspaces.
4. Addressing Geopolitical Conflicts:
Global efforts to reduce geopolitical tensions and ensure respect for international borders are essential for creating safer airspaces.
Conclusion
The skies, once a symbol of progress and connectivity, are increasingly fraught with danger due to military conflicts, misidentifications, and technological vulnerabilities. As James Reason’s “Swiss Cheese Theory” aptly suggests, disasters occur when multiple layers of defence fail. India, with its burgeoning aviation industry, must take proactive steps to address gaps in pilot training, regulatory oversight, and equipment readiness. Globally, the ICAO and individual nations must prioritize safety in conflict zones through stronger protocols and collaborative efforts. The time to act is now—before another tragedy claims innocent lives.
Editorial 2: China’s moves must recast India’s critical minerals push
Introduction
In an era of geopolitical competition and technological advancement, the strategic importance of critical minerals has grown exponentially. These minerals are indispensable for high-tech industries such as semiconductors, batteries, aerospace, and renewable energy. However, India’s efforts to develop its critical mineral resources face significant challenges, compounded by global supply chain vulnerabilities. The recent moves by China, a dominant player in critical minerals, call for an urgent recalibration of India’s policies.
China’s Strategic Maneuvering in Critical Minerals
1. Weaponization of Mineral Exports:
China has a history of leveraging its dominance in critical minerals to gain geopolitical and economic advantage. The recent inclusion of 28 U.S. entities in its export control list and restrictions on key materials such as tungsten, gallium, and magnesium demonstrate Beijing’s strategic approach.
2. Calculated Actions:
China carefully targets minerals critical to Western nations, balancing its actions to avoid disrupting domestic industries and export-dependent sectors. Historical examples, such as the 2010 rare earth embargo against Japan and the recent bans on antimony, gallium, and germanium exports, reveal a consistent pattern.
3. Global Implications:
China’s actions have transformed the competition for critical minerals into a focal point of international economic diplomacy, pushing countries like India to reassess their strategies for securing and developing these resources.
Challenges in India’s Critical Minerals Development
1. Lack of Investor Interest:
Despite the discovery of lithium deposits in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi district in 2023, no company has shown interest in bidding for the blocks. This reflects broader issues, as government data indicates only 48% of auctioned mineral blocks have been successfully allocated in recent years.
2. Outdated Resource Classification:
India’s resource classification system lags behind international standards, leaving potential investors uncertain about the commercial viability of mineral blocks. Many auctioned blocks lack advanced exploration data, making them high-risk investments.
3. Limited Private and Foreign Participation:
Although the government has introduced reforms to attract private and foreign investors, their participation remains minimal. Most exploration licenses and mining operations are dominated by public sector entities, stalling progress in critical mineral development.
4. Exploration Deficit:
Robust geological surveys and advanced exploration are lacking, leading to information asymmetry between the government and potential bidders. This gap results in undervalued bids or a complete lack of interest in auctions.
Government Reforms and Measures
1. Identification of Critical Minerals:
The Ministry of Mines has identified 30 critical minerals essential for national security, emphasizing their strategic importance.
2. Institutional Initiatives:
The establishment of Khanij Bidesh India Ltd. (KABIL) aims to secure overseas investments in critical minerals like lithium and cobalt.
3. Legislative Reforms:
The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Act, 2023, introduced exploration licenses to attract specialized agencies, including foreign firms, for surveying geologically challenging deposits. The Act also declassified certain rare earth elements, opening doors for private sector participation.
4. Incentives for Exploration:
The 2023 amendments include reimbursement of 50% of exploration expenditure once mining begins, designed to de-risk early-stage operations.
Addressing Persistent Challenges
Despite these reforms, India’s critical mineral development remains sluggish due to:
- Insufficient Fiscal Incentives: Reimbursement-based incentives delay cost recovery for investors, deterring participation.
- Low Demand for Exploration Licenses: The de-risking mechanism of exploration licenses has not generated the expected interest.
- Data Deficiency: The absence of high-quality geological surveys undermines investor confidence and leads to suboptimal auction outcomes.
The Way Forward
1. Adopting a Semiconductor Model:
India can draw lessons from its approach to semiconductor fabrication, where aggressive upfront capital support has been pledged. Similarly, offering direct financial incentives during the exploration phase of critical minerals can mitigate risks and attract investments.
2. Enhancing Geological Data Quality:
A robust framework for advanced geological surveys and resource classification is essential to reduce information asymmetry and increase the commercial appeal of mineral blocks.
3. Encouraging Private and Foreign Participation:
Clear and consistent policies, coupled with fiscal incentives, can foster greater private and foreign investment in exploration and mining activities.
4. International Collaboration:
India should explore partnerships with resource-rich nations for technology transfer and resource sharing to secure a steady supply of critical minerals.
5. Strengthening Domestic Capabilities:
Developing domestic industries for refining and processing critical minerals is crucial to reduce dependency on imports and create a resilient supply chain.
Conclusion
As critical minerals become the cornerstone of global technological and economic progress, India must adopt a forward-looking approach to develop its resources. Upfront fiscal incentives, robust exploration frameworks, and international partnerships can unlock the true potential of India’s critical minerals sector. By emulating the semiconductor fabrication model, India can overcome current challenges and position itself as a key player in the global critical minerals supply chain.
