Editorial 1: Understanding India’s China conundrum
Context
In its strategic dealings with Beijing, New Delhi must stay ready for any possible outcome.
Introduction
Today’s China is clearly different from the time of Deng Xiaoping. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, China has changed a lot, and there’s no sign that it plans to go back to its old ways. Instead, China is looking back at its history, often acting like a wronged civilisation that deserves sympathy. As this attitude becomes stronger, it is clear that other countries, especially those near China’s borders, need to be very careful. China’s recent aggressive actions along the Himalayas are part of its goal to bring back the old Qing Dynasty borders, even though these claims are weak and questionable.
Border Clashes and Changing Relations
- There have been several border skirmishes between India and China, including:
| Year | Place of Clash |
| 2013 | Depsang |
| 2016 | Demchok |
| 2017 | Doklam |
| 2020 | Galwan |
- These incidents support the idea that China’s behaviour has become more aggressive over time.
- Even though Indian and Chinese leaders have recently exchanged warm words, India must remain careful and alert.
- The rest of the world was surprised by this sudden show of friendliness between the two countries.
Caution About China’s Intentions
- It is unrealistic to believe that India-China relations have returned to the more peaceful days of Hu Jintao’s leadership (early 2000s).
- Although there was some relaxation of tensions at the end of 2024, especially before the BRICS Summit in Kazan, this may not mean lasting peace.
India-China Patrolling Agreement
- A border patrolling agreement was discussed around October 2024, just before the BRICS meeting.
- This agreement talked about how both sides would manage border patrols in the Himalayas.
- Although it was seen as a breakthrough, the details were unclear.
- A limited stand-off still remains along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Diplomatic Messages and Statements
- In November 2024, the Chinese Defence Ministry said that both countries were following a settlement for disengagement and resuming patrols.
- A Chinese spokesperson expressed hope for peaceful cooperation, saying:
“We look forward to a harmonious dance between the Chinese Dragon and the Indian Elephant.”
- In February 2025, Prime Minister Modi said during an interview in the U.S. that:
- The border situation is now normal.
- Talks with President Xi Jinping in Kazan helped restore calm.
- India-China cooperation is important for global peace and prosperity.
Why India Must Stay Alert
- While de-escalation and new patrolling rules are good steps, they are not enough.
- China is known for being strategic and detail-focused, so India must handle things carefully.
- In today’s world, where pluralism is weakening and power dominates diplomacy, many experts believe:
- “Might is Right” is back.
- The ‘rules-based international order’ is becoming meaningless.
China’s Defence Spending and Military Build-Up
- In March, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget over last year.
- This is almost three times more than India’s defence spending.
- India’s defence budget is less than 2% of its GDP, which is a serious concern.
- This growing gap in military spending should be seen as a warning for India.
China’s Military Presence on the Border
- India and China are not likely to go to war soon.
- But India should not blindly trust China’s promises or statements.
- The Chinese Army currently has over 100,000 soldiers stationed in Ladakh, along with:
- Tanks
- Howitzers
- Surface-to-air missiles
- Heavy weapons
- China’s Nuclear Build-Up
- There are reports that China is expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile.
- Although nuclear data is often unclear, agencies like SIPRI suggest:
- China has added around 100 nuclear warheads recently.
China’s Edge in Technology-Driven Warfare
- While speaking of peace, China is also preparing for war.
- Some of these preparations might be aimed at defending against the U.S., but they still impact India.
China’s Lead in New Age Warfare:
| Technology Area | China’s Advantage |
| Artificial Intelligence (AI) | Leading in AI development for military use |
| Cyber Warfare | Skilled in AI-based cybersecurity operations |
| Anti-satellite Weapons | Already ahead of India in this area |
| Quantum Technology | Believed to have a major advantage |
| Battlefield Digital Systems | Progress in real-time data, predictive analytics, and automation |
India Must Stay Cautious
- Mere friendly words are not enough to trust China’s intentions.
- India must stay alert and carefully monitor these developments.
- Before the Elephant (India) and the Dragon (China) can truly “dance together”, there needs to be:
- Real trust
- Concrete actions
- Clear transparency
China’s Foreign Policy Moves Near India
- China is trying to make new friends in India’s neighbouring countries.
- This is part of China’s current foreign policy strategy.
- The latest focus is on Bangladesh.
China’s Outreach to Bangladesh:
| Event | Details |
| Change in leadership | The Sheikh Hasina government has weakened or ended. |
| New friendship | Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Mohammed Yunus visited China in March. |
| China’s view | Now China sees Bangladesh as a ‘good friend’. |
- This shift is a serious concern for India, especially on its eastern side.
- India must be alert and watchful of this new China-Bangladesh closeness.
India’s Foreign Focus Shift
- While India has been focusing on the U.S., it is losing attention on its neighbouring countries.
- This issue also stretches to West Asia and North Africa.
- Good relations with nearby nations are very important, and India must not ignore them.
China’s Lead in Nuclear Energy & Africa
- In the global race for energy security, nuclear energy is crucial.
- China is ahead of India and others in this area.
China’s Advantage in Nuclear Energy:
| Region | China’s Progress |
| Africa | China has built a strong presence and access to nuclear energy resources. |
| India’s position | Still lagging behind in building nuclear ties with Africa. |
- This gives China a big lead in the coming energy competition.
The Bigger Picture: Why India Must Prepare
- The global power race is getting more intense, especially between India and China.
- China is:
- Rapidly modernising its military
- Expanding its influence
- Extending its boundaries
- If India doesn’t act quickly and smartly, the future may become very challenging.
Conclusion
In its ongoing power struggle with China, India must be ready for any possible outcome. U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his unpredictable behavior, might even make a deal with China. If that happens, it could change global power dynamics. So, it would be wise for India’s leaders and planners to keep this possibility in mind and start preparing, even if it’s not urgent right now. India and China, both being ancient civilizations, have faced and solved many issues before. This could be another challenge that India might have to face, even if it seems unlikely at the moment.
Editorial 2: The pandemic — looking back, looking forward
Context
Despite valuable lessons in public health, innovation, and global equity, much critical work remains incomplete.
Introduction
“The only possible answer to the question of how we can survive the plague is by living.” — José Saramago. Last month marked five years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. We’ve had countless events, editorials, and policy debates, yet many still reflect on Saramago’s words. Have we truly learned enough to build a more inclusive, healthy, and innovative world. The pandemic forced a deep rethink on trust, technology, care for the vulnerable, and the structure of health systemsacross the Global South and North.
Some of the critical lessons
- Fragility of Trust in Health Systems
- The pandemic exposed the fragility of public trust in health-care institutions and public health messaging.
- Low trust and confidence in health-care services hindered the uptake of:
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., masking, social distancing)
- Pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., testing, vaccination)
Global Impact of Trust Deficit
| Parameter | Observation |
| Trust in Health Systems | Varying levels of trust affected adherence to health advisories and policies |
| Mobility & Compliance | Directly influenced by public confidence in health-care infrastructure |
| Communication Failures | More prevalent in vulnerable economies, hampering health response efforts |
- The Indian Experience
- In India, early heterogeneity in reported COVID-19 cases reflected uneven confidence in the health sector.
- Reports later published in Science indicated underreporting of excess mortality.
- These findings highlighted:
- Variations in data transparency
- The urgent need for public confidence-building in health surveillance
- The Crucial Role of Government
- Public health success relies on public trust.
- Governments must play an active role in:
- Communicating effectively
- Building confidence in preventive health measures
- Without trust, even the most well-designed interventions may fail.
- Technology: A Double-Edged Sword
| Positive Outcomes | Challenges Faced |
| Rapid tech adoption in health and education | Digital divide between rich and poor |
| Telemedicine expanded access during lockdowns | Limited reach in remote or under-resourced regions |
| AI usage surged in pharmaceutical innovation | Equity in access to digital tools remains a major concern |
- Rise of AI in Pharma Innovation
- The pandemic accelerated AI adoption in health R&D:
- Research at the University of Sussex showed a sharp rise in AI keywords in pharmaceutical patents post-2020.
- Supported by milestones like:
- Nobel Prize to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper (DeepMind)
- Breakthroughs in AI-led drug discovery
- Telemedicine & Digital Health
- Telemedicine revived as a vital alternative during mobility restrictions.
- Though digital health tools expanded globally, they revealed:
- A glaring gap in access, especially in developing countries
- The need for inclusive digital infrastructure
Vulnerabilities were amplified
- Existing Vulnerabilities Got Worse
- The pandemic exposed and worsened inequalities, especially in poor and vulnerable economies.
- Many now fear that the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk.
- Women were affected more, especially in areas like:
- Childcare responsibilities
- Workplace participation
- Mental health
- Struggles in Accessing Health Services
- Basic health services became hard to access, especially for the poor.
- This showed the need for:
- Better investment in public health
- Policies focused on vulnerable groups
- Global Mental Health & Work Crisis
| Issue | Impact |
| Mental health | A “silent pandemic” with increased anxiety, depression, and stress |
| Workplace productivity | Dropped sharply, no clear long-term solutions yet |
| Remote/hybrid work models | Still being debated globally |
- Health System Weaknesses
- COVID-19 revealed major gaps in health systems, especially in the Global South.
- Problems included:
- Lack of resources
- Weak institutional capacity
- Insufficient public health funding
Suggested Solutions
| Solution Type | Description |
| Universal Health Insurance | To ensure everyone gets access to basic healthcare |
| National Oxygen Capacity | Needed to tackle future respiratory diseases |
| Hybrid Health Models | Combining digital tech with existing healthcare infrastructure |
| Public-Private Partnerships | Boost research and health delivery, especially in emergencies |
| Central Public Health Officer | Needed in countries with decentralized systems to coordinate better |
- Equity vs. Profits: The Vaccine Debate
- The pandemic reignited global debates on profit vs. access.
- Key issues included:
- IP waivers on COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and treatments
- Tension between innovation protection and global health equity
- Africa suffered due to vaccine nationalism, where wealthier countries hoarded doses.
- South-South Cooperation: A Way Forward
- There’s a growing call for South-South partnerships (collaboration between developing nations) to:
- Share resources and research
- Ensure fairer access to vaccines and health tools in future pandemics
- Reduce dependence on wealthier countries in health crises
Conclusion: In perspective
Five years since the COVID-19 pandemic, we seem to have flattened the curve in health, innovation, and the economy, yet much unfinished work remains. Whether we move towards ‘One World, One Health’ or stay trapped in protectionist, national security-driven approaches is still unclear. As we live beyond the pandemic, echoing Saramago, are we truly learning and building inclusive, resilient health systems for tomorrow?
