Russia-Ukraine crisis:
GS Paper 2: Important International institutions, agencies and fora, their structure, mandate.
Context:
Recently, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had named February 16, which U.S. officials had speculated may be the day of a Russian assault, as “National Unity Day.”
Russia, on the other hand, has made it clear that it has no ambitions to attack Ukraine.
What is it that Russia wants right now?
- There will be discussions about the fulfilment of past pledges regarding NATO enlargement.
- NATO soldiers are being withdrawn from post-Soviet states.
- Ukraine will not be admitted as a member of NATO, according to the agreement.
- Future security is ensured through the use of encryption.
What do the United States and European countries that make up NATO want?
- Russian troops are being ordered to withdraw from border areas.
- Russia should cease conducting war simulations in neighbouring nations such as Belarus.
- According to a letter leaked to a Spanish newspaper, the United States is willing to negotiate security assurances, but has made no commitments on autonomous states joining NATO.
- Wants assurances that Russia would not invade Ukraine—Russia has stated that it has no intention of doing so—but the presence of forces in the country is concerning.
The following are India’s primary concerns:
World War scenario:
Any conflict in which the United States and its European allies are pitted against Russia will have ramifications throughout the world, both economically and in terms of security, and India, as a partner to both Moscow and Washington, will either be forced to choose sides or be prepared to deal with dissatisfaction on both sides of the border.
The situation occurs at the same time as India is completing its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, and New Delhi is hoping to obtain a waiver of U.S. sanctions as a result of this purchase. A conflict will make it more difficult to complete both the delivery of the system and the potential of receiving a presidential waiver.
The world’s attention is diverted from China to Russia at a time when the United States and Europe are becoming more focused on their Indo-Pacific strategy, which places India at the forefront, and India is grappling with Chinese aggression and land-grab at the Line of Actual Control, with 100,000 troops on both sides of the border, the world’s attention is diverted from China to Russia.
Brings Russia into the picture Closer ties with China- The crisis will make Moscow more reliant on allies like as China, and it will help to establish a regional bloc in which India will not participate. The future appears clear in Beijing this week, as India has announced a diplomatic and political boycott of the Olympic games, while Russian President Vladimir Putin, Central Asian Presidents, and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan are all in town to show their support for Xi Jinping.
Energy crisis:
Whenever there is a war, Europe is concerned that Russia may cut off gas and oil supplies, causing energy costs to rise. Already, tensions have driven oil prices up 14 percent in a month, pushing them beyond $90 a barrel, and analysts predict that if the issue is not handled, they may reach $125 a barrel.
What exactly is the source of the conflict?
As a result of a major political and commercial agreement with the European Union, tensions between Ukraine and Russia, both of which were former Soviet nations, erupted in late 2013. Years of demonstrations in Kiev culminated in bloodshed after the country’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, called off the negotiations in December 2013.
- Then, in March 2014, Russia seized Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian sympathies, on the pretence of defending its own interests and the interests of the region’s Russian-speaking population.
- The pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian regions of Donetk and Luhansk quickly declared their independence from Kiev, igniting months of fierce conflict that lasted for months. Despite the fact that Kiev and Moscow signed a peace agreement in Minsk in 2015, which was negotiated by France and Germany, there have been numerous breaches of the ceasefire.
