Editorial 1: Sent messages

Context

New Delhi must collaborate closely with Srinagar to effectively identify and isolate terrorist elements

Introduction

In the wake of the brutal terror attack in Pahalgam, which targeted tourists and locals alike, India faces a grave reminder of the threats to its unity, pluralism, and regional stability. This incident not only endangers innocent lives but also strikes at the heart of Kashmir’s economy and the fragile sense of normalcy in the region.

The Message Behind the Pahalgam Terror Incident

• Deliberate Targeting of India’s Pluralism
  • Tourists were chosen based on religion — an attack on India’s core value of diversity.
  • A local Kashmiri who attempted to help the tourists was also killed — a message against humanitarian instincts.
• Economic Disruption in Kashmir
  • Targeting a tourist hub strikes at the heart of the region’s economic lifeline.
  • Thousands of Kashmiris who rely on tourism have now been impacted.
• Timing and Symbolism
  • Attack coincided with the U.S. Vice-President’s visit — aimed to tarnish India’s image globally.
  • It questions the narrative of restored normalcy post-abrogation of Article 370.

Psychological and Economic Fallout

• Spreading Fear and Uncertainty
  • Potential recurrence of attacks on tourists raises fear among travelers.
  • Fear can deter tourism, leading to prolonged economic pain for locals.
• Undermining the Valley’s Stability
  • The perception of peace has been shaken.
  • The message: superficial calm does not equal actual normalcy.

Required Governmental Response

• Strategic Diplomacy and Counterterrorism
  • New Delhi has used strong diplomatic channels to pressure Pakistan.
  • The role of Pakistan’s covert support to radical elements is widely acknowledged.
• Redefining ‘Normalcy’
  • Absence of large-scale violence is insufficient to claim stability.
  • Real normalcy is about the lived experience — safety, expression, and livelihood.

Political and Civil Engagement

• Democratic Processes: A Limited Outlet
  • While Lok Sabha and court-mandated Assembly polls occurred, political freedoms remain restricted.
  • Governance-related grievances lacked proper political expression.
• Restoring Statehood and Political Empowerment
  • Empowering Jammu and Kashmir is key to lasting peace.
  • Statehood restoration is critical for meaningful autonomy and governance.

The Path Forward: Unity Against Terrorism

• Nationwide Cohesion Against Radical Elements
  • The message from New Delhi and Srinagar must be unequivocal: India stands united.
  • Isolate and neutralize those who jeopardize peace and economic stability in Kashmir.
• Support for Kashmiris and Protection for Tourists
  • Policies must aim to protect both local livelihoods and tourist safety.
  • A secure and thriving Kashmir is essential for national harmony and regional prosperity.

Conclusion

The Pahalgam attack is a grim reminder that terrorism seeks to divide and destabilize. India must respond with unity, resolve, and inclusive governance. Restoring trust, ensuring security, and empowering Kashmiris are essential to defeat extremist agendas. A peaceful, economically vibrant Kashmir, embraced by the nation, is the strongest rebuttal to those who wish to sow fear and discord.

Editorial 2: Where tariffs trump economics

Context

The planned tariffs are likely to hurt India’s goods exports to the U.S.

Introduction

The new tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump have caused a drop in prices of important items like crude oil, increased market volatility, and led to a fall in stock markets. Since the announcement, crude oil prices have gone down by about 14%, mainly due to worries about a slowdown in global trade and lower demand for oil.

Escalating Trade Tensions

• The reactions to the announcement have strengthened fears that a global trade war may have truly begun.
• Rising trade tensions could cause higher inflation, slower growth, and more conflicts between countries.
• More importantly, it has brought a period of uncertainty, making economic policymaking harder. While richer countries can respond to U.S. actions, poorer nations face added pressure from both global changes and their own economic problems.

The role of reciprocal tariffs

• A reciprocal tariff is a tax one country puts on another in response to a similar tax from that country.
• The goal is to:
  • Protect local businesses
  • Save jobs
  • Correct trade imbalances
• While meant to make trade fair, reciprocal tariffs can start a cycle of increasing trade barriers, hurting both countries.
• These tariffs began when countries used them to:
  • Support local industries
  • Grow their economies
  • Push for better trade deals
• In the short term, they may help local industries.
• But in the long run, they can:
  • Raise prices for consumers
  • Disrupt supply chains
  • Slow down economic growth
• Tariffs were once a big income source for governments, but now they are mainly used for protection and negotiation.

Impact on South Asia and Southeast Asia

Region/Country	Impact
South Asia & Southeast Asia	Heavily affected by recent tariffs. Economic growth was largely driven by exports to the U.S.
Vietnam	Exports to the U.S. contribute 30% of GDP.
Cambodia	Exports to the U.S. contribute 25% of GDP.
Tariffs on Vietnam & Cambodia	Both countries have been hit with high tariffs (46% for Vietnam and 49% for Cambodia).
Other Affected Countries	Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore face varying degrees of tariffs.
Cambodia’s Threat	The garment industry (employing 750,000 people) is at risk, leading to potential job losses.
Smaller Economies	Cannot retaliate like China; they can only negotiate based on U.S. interests.

Tariff Calculation and Issues

Area	Details
Tariff Calculation Formula	Based on a country’s trade deficit with the U.S., divided by its exports, and then divided by two.
Baseline Tariff	A 10% baseline tariff is applied to almost all countries.
Elasticity Issue	The formula assumes a 0.25 elasticity for import prices in response to tariffs, which economists feel should be closer to 1.
One-Size-Fits-All Approach	The formula applies the same method regardless of the country’s trade barriers or market openness.
Focus on Goods	Only considers the trade deficit in goods (shippable items) and not in services (e.g., technology, banking).
Advantage for Some Countries	Countries with fewer goods exports but more services exports benefit from this formula.

Prospects for India

• The proposed tariffs are expected to significantly impact India’s merchandise exports to the U.S.
• If the tariff plans are implemented after the current pause, India could face a $7.76 billion drop (6.4%) in exports to the U.S. this year, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative.
• In 2024, India exported $89 billion worth of goods to the U.S.
• This highlights the urgent need for India to diversify its trade base, requiring swift trade policy actions.
• Key actions for India:
  • Secure a balanced trade deal with the U.S. through continuous negotiations.
  • Fast-track trade agreements with the European Union, U.K., and Canada.
  • Strengthen ties with Russia, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and the UAE.
  • Handle ties with China strategically and with clear intent.
• Some view the situation as an opportunity, partly inspired by the 54% growth in Apple’s iPhone exports from India last year.
• However, behind this success, India’s total goods exports for 2024-25 were $437 billion, the same as last year.
• To capitalize on the current situation, India will need substantial preparation and strategic planning.

Conclusion

The recent tariffs announced by President Trump are expected to hurt India’s goods exports to the U.S. These tariffscould make Indian products more expensive in the U.S. market, leading to a drop in demand and a decline in export earnings for Indian businesses.